Less than 24 hours remain before the first in-person polls open for the 2022 midterms. And on the eve of Election Day, political bettors are predicting a “red wave” that will result in Republicans holding court in both the US Senate and House of Representatives come January 2023.
All 435 seats in the House and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. While early voting has been underway for many weeks, the bulk of the vote will be cast on Tuesday, November 8.
Political bettors wagering real money on the election outcomes on the online betting exchange PredictIt are forecasting a Republican sweep. The market asking, “What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?” has a GOP-controlled Senate and House as the betting front-runner at 69 cents. A Republican House and Democratic Senate is a distant second at 29 cents.
As for each chamber, PredictIt bettors give Republicans a 90% chance of taking the House from the Democrats and a 72% chance at securing power in the Senate. Democrats currently maintain a 220-seat majority in the House and hold a tiebreaking 50-50 split in the Senate by way of VP Kamala Harris.
The vice president of the United States serves as the president of the Senate and acts as the tie-breaking vote in the case of deadlock.
Election Day Revelations
As the vote counting begins on Tuesday, the country will begin learning how much change Americans are seeking in their political path forward to counter record inflation, high crime, and incessant illegal immigration.
President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama are urging voters to keep Democrats in power. Their position is that Republicans stand to threaten democracy and abortion rights, and that Biden’s administration is actually handling things quite well in wake of the pandemic. Republicans argue that change is needed to turn around inflation and reduce crime.
This election is hugely consequential,” said Edward Foley, a law professor at Ohio State University’s Moritz College of Law. “It’s a question of where our democracy is and how we are doing with our collective self-governance.”
Though sports betting is legally permitted and operational in more than 30 states, none are allowed to take bets on the 2022 midterms. But overseas, political wagering is a storied pastime, and books are taking action on the 2022 US outcomes.
Bookmakers in the UK also forecast a red wave. Republicans are heavy favorites to win both congressional chambers, with the GOP at 1/10 for the House and 1/4 for the Senate. Those odds respectively imply a chance of 91% and 80%.
Trump Fires First
Once the midterms are settled, all political eyes will look to 2024.
In what’s a rather unique occurrence, it isn’t necessarily clear whether the incumbent president will seek a second term. For now, Biden is the betting favorite to represent the Democratic ticket for a second time. And his foe could once again be former President Donald Trump, who is expected to run in his third consecutive US presidential election.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), however, would be preferred by many Republican voters. Neither Trump nor DeSantis has yet formally announced their intention to run, but the former president took the first shot at the Florida governor over the weekend while campaigning in Pennsylvania for Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz.
Citing recent polling that found him to be the preferred GOP 2024 candidate, Trump said, “Trump at 71%. Ron DeSanctimonious at 10%.”
Trump has made a habit of giving his political rivals unfavorable nicknames. “DeSanctimonious” follows “Little Marco” and “Lyin’ Ted” for US Senators Marco Rubio (R-Florida) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and “Sleepy Joe” for Biden.
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