Pick to Finish Top 5 at the Instacart 500 at Phoenix

By | March 11, 2021
Pick: Top 5
Odds: -105
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Sunday’s Instacart 500 will take place at the Phoenix Raceway which is a one mile track and a venue where Denny Hamlin has had success at in his career.

On the season, Hamlin sits 1st overall in the driver standings and in Playoff Points. He leads all drivers in Top 5s (3), Top 10s (3), laps led (150) and stage wins (3).

Hamlin started off the season with a 5th place result at the Daytona 500, which he was going for history by trying to win his 3rd straight Super Bowl of NASCAR. Unfortunately, he came up short.

Hamlin followed that up with a 3rd place result in the O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 at the Daytona road course which was above expectations.

Surprisingly, he only managed to get an 11th place result at Homestead-Miami where he has been strong at. Last weekend, he bounced back at Las Vegas with a 4th place finish.

Hamlin’s Instacart 500 Betting Odds

  • To Win (+650)
  • Top 3 (+160)
  • Top 5 (-105)
  • Top 10 (-315)

NASCAR betting sites have listed Hamlin as a +650 to +700 odds on favorite to win this Sunday’s race. He’s the third highest betting favorite behind Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski.

To finish in the Top 3, Hamlin is listed at +160 odds. His -105 line for a Top 5 result offers solid betting value. However, his Top 10 odds of -315 don’t offer much value whatsoever.

Hamlin’s Stats at Phoenix Raceway

In 31 career starts, Denny Hamlin has two wins, 14 Top 5s, 18 Top 10s, an 11.0 average finish and just 1 DNF.

Hamlin is tied with Logano and Newman for the third most wins at this track. He’s second in Top 5s and 4th in Top 10s. He also has the third best average finish among drivers.

In the last 11 races at this track, Hamlin has one win, five Top 5s, and eight Top 10s. He won the fall race in 2019.

Hamlin’s Recent Instacart 500 Results

Denny Hamlin won this race in 2012. Since then, he’s finished:

  • 3rd in 2013
  • 19th in 2014
  • 23rd in 2015
  • 3rd in 2016
  • 10th in 2017
  • 4th in 2018
  • 5th in 2019
  • 20th in 2020

He has three Top 5s and four Top 10s in the last five Instacart 500 races. Hamlin will start 3rd in this weekend’s race.

Take Hamlin to Finish in the Top 5 This Weekend

With the way that Hamlin is running in 2021 so far, leading the field, and his recent success at Phoenix Raceway, I believe the #11 car is going to finish in the Top 5 and challenge for the checkered flag on Sunday.

He’s already snagged three Top 5s this season with his worst finish being just 11th overall. Hamlin had issues in last year’s Instacart 500 race before picking up his momentum on the season.

Since Hamlin has already come out with a lot of momentum this year, I’m expecting Denny to be one of the best cars on Sunday and finish with another Top 5 result.

Hamlin to Finish in Top 5 (-105)
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