Kings vs. Ducks NHL Pick – March 10, 2021

By | March 10, 2021
Pick: Kings
Odds: -119
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We picked up a winner last night between the Jets and Maple Leafs as the total got Over the 6-goal mark in the final two minutes of the game.

While that could be viewed as fortunate, the Maple Leafs peppered Connor Hellebuyck for 39 shots and he was simply marvelous. Had he been anything less, the Leafs win that game and the total goes well over the 6-goal plateau.

At the end of the day, the Jets (+166) came out victorious as big moneyline underdogs while the Over 6 (-111) hit for us on this night.

Now, we’ll turn our attention to this Kings vs. Ducks NHL pick in a rivalry matchup from Anaheim!

Kings vs. Ducks Betting Odds

Moneyline Spread Total
Kings (-119) +1.5 (-250) Over 5.5 (-102)
Ducks (+108) +1.5 (-145) Under 5.5 (-108)

Kings vs. Ducks NHL Pick Breakdown

Kings

After rattling off a six-game winning streak and seven-game point streak, the Kings have now dropped five of their last six, most recently a highly-entertaining 6-5 overtime loss to these Ducks on Monday night.

It was an unusually high-scoring affair between the two California rivals, but it’s been the Kings who sport the superior offense, at least on the surface.

Kings-NHLDespite low expectations entering the season, the Kings’ offense has hung in there while averaging an even 3.00 goals per game on the season, good for a share of 15th alongside the Chicago Blackhawks.

Certainly, their seventh-ranked 26.4% clip on the power play has helped as it appears their 5v5 offense hasn’t been all too good.

At 5v5 this season, the Kings rank 30th in scoring chances for/60, and 29th in both high-danger chances for/60 and expected goals for/60, according to Natural Stat Trick. Their 2.12 goals/60 isn’t outrageously above their 1.93 expected mark at 5v5 this season, but the Kings are generating chances with the worst of em’ this season.

They’ve scored nine goals over their last two games after a quiet five-game stretch, however, so this offense appears to be rolling entering this one tonight.

The Kings have been a fairly solid defensive club this season, allowing 292 goals per game which puts them in a share of 14th alongside the Arizona Coyotes. Their solid 82.2% penalty kill has them in a 10th-place tie with the Carolina Hurricanes to boot.

However, the advanced data once again largely frowns on their work, this time on the back end.

At 5v5 this season, the Kings rank 21st in scoring chances against/60, 23rd in high-danger chances against/60 and 22nd in expected goals against/60 on the campaign. Their 2.34 goals against/60 is more or less in line with their 2.25 expected mark, however, but the advanced metrics tell us they are a bottom-third defensive group in 2021.

We’re not sure who will get the starting nod in goal for the road side tonight as Jonathan Quick is listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury after being hurt late in Saturday’s win over the Blues.

Cal Petersen started the Kings’ 6-5 loss to the Ducks on Monday, his second consecutive subpar outing as he’s now surrendered nine goals across two March contests so far.

However, the 26-year-old has stil put together a solid season, turning in a 2.74 GAA and .914 Sv% on the year, but is also just 4-4-4 in the process.

At this point, an educated guess puts Petersen in between the pipes again in search of redemption, but we’ll have to wait and see how this shakes out closer to game time.

Ducks

It was a rare offensive explosion on Monday for one of the NHL’s weakest offensive clubs.

The Ducks exploded for six goals, but still rank 29th with just 2.31 goals per game on the season while their 13.3% clip on the power play isn’t much better at 28th league wide.

Ducks-NHLThe advanced metrics are a little more favorable, but Anaheim still sits 19th in scoring chances for/60, and 21st in both high-danger chances for/60 and expected goals for/60 at 5v5 this season. Their 2.20 goals/60 at 5v5 is a tad above their 2.08 expected mark, so the Ducks appear to be fairly deserving of their even-strength offensive fate to this point in the season.

Like the Kings, however, the Ducks’ offense has been filling the net of late with a surprising 11 goals over their last two games, so there should be plenty of offensive confidence in this group despite their season-long results up front.

It’s not a great picture on the back end for Anaheim, however. The Ducks are tied for 16th with 3.04 goals per game with a decet 79.9% penalty kill, but the underlying metrics aren’t great.

At 5v5, Dallas Eakins’ club sits 26th in scoring chances against/60, 29th in high-danger chances against/60 and 27th in expected goals against/60 on the campaign. Their 2.53 goals against/60 at 5v5 is actually above their 2.34 expected mark, but the numbers clearly show this is one of the very worst defenses in the NHL.

Complicating matters on the back end is the fact No .1 defenseman Hampus Lindholm remains out of the lineup due to a fractured wrist that will keep him out until April in all likelihood.

The Ducks could get Josh Manson back for this one after he’s missed time with oblique and lower-body ailments this season, but he remains questionable. Should Manson miss tonight’s contest as well, this Ducks back end will be severely undermanned.

Like with L.A., we have yet to be informed of who will be between the pipes in this one for the Ducks.

Conventional wisdom says it will be John Gibson after he was given a breather on Saturday against the Avalanche, but the American netminder is in the modest of a horrendous stretch of play. Over four starts in the month of March, Gibson is the not-so-proud owner of a 3.74 GAA and .870 Sv%, going 1-1-2 in that time. He also yielded an .878 Sv% over his final five appearances in the month of February.

Gibson lost his form last season, his worst in the NHL, but with a 2.89 GAA and .900 Sv% in 21 outings this season, he’s flirting with another career-worst season here in 2021.

Kings vs. Ducks NHL Pick

Defensively, the Kings and Ducks matchup fairly evenly, at least on the surface between overall goals against and penalty-killing numbers. That said, the Ducks’ sport some of the league’s worst underlying defensive metrics and are without their best defenseman, and possibly another of the top-three in Manson.

Where the separation lies is up front. I do believe the Kings are the better offensive club and their power play is nearly twice as potent as Anaheim’s from a percentage standpoint.

After a red-hot start to the season, Gibson’s play has fallen off tremendously and while Petersen has been shaky in back-to-back outings, he has largely been solid this season and still sports the superior overall numbers.

Don’t be surprised if it’s a close one as an overwhelming majority of NHL games have been this season, but my money’s on the Kings getting revenge here on the moneyline.

Kings (-119)
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