Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has emerged as the betting favorite to win the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential ticket. But despite his front-runner status, all eyes remain on former President Donald Trump and what the 45th commander-in-chief will do post-midterms.
While Trump has largely been viewed as the GOP’s presumptive 2024 nominee, the billionaire’s continuing on with unsubstantiated claims that he was wrongly removed from the White House through a corrupt 2020 election has led to some conservatives moving their support behind DeSantis. President Joe Biden’s repeated gaffes and seemingly age-related cognitive issues have also been cited as reasons for some Republicans seeking a younger candidate to lead the country.
On the political wagering exchange PredictIt, DeSantis is the betting favorite to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. The governor’s shares are trading at 40 cents. Trump is second at 24 cents.
Just three months ago, it was Trump’s shares that were north of 40 cents and DeSantis below 30 cents. The momentum is with Florida’s rising GOP star, as he continues to consolidate the “anybody but Trump” faction among the Republican Party.
Trump Decision Imminent
There are less than 900 days remaining until the November 5, 2024, presidential election. It will likely be a chaotic two-plus years leading up to the general election.
Biden is certainly no sure thing to run again. Even if he does, the president would not be a shoo-in to represent the Democratic Party again.
Only six US presidents have made the decision not to run again who were able: Presidents James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, and Lyndon Johnson.
The last was Johnson who opted not to seek reelection after being severely criticized for his handling of the Vietnam War. Coolidge took office after President John F. Kennedy was assassinated. He won the presidential election in 1964 a year after JFK was shot and killed in Dallas.
Though Trump has not officially tipped his 2024 hand, his comments over the past year have only suggested that he will indeed seek a second term. Only President Grover Cleveland has served two nonconsecutive presidential four-year terms (1885-1889, 1893-1897).
A Trump run could split the GOP party with DeSantis. But Trump has expressed his opinion that if he decides to run, he believes the Florida governor would drop out.
I do think if I run, he won’t,” Trump said last December. The former president added that he and DeSantis are friendly despite what the media might try to purport.
“I know they try and create a friction. I don’t think it exists at all,” Trump said of media reports suggesting a feud between himself and DeSantis. “But he’s good, he’s done a good job as governor.”
UK bookmakers, which are permitted to accept wagers on political outcomes, something not yet the case at any legal, regulated sportsbook in the US, believe the eventual Republican candidate will win in 2024.
William Hill and Paddy Power have Trump the 2024 favorite at +275 (implied odds of 26.7%). DeSantis is next at +400 (20%). Biden’s reelection odds are slightly longer at +500 (16.7%). VP Kamala Harris is at +1200, and former VP Mike Pence rounds out the top five at +1400.
PredictIt bettors have it a bit differently. On the market asking, “Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?” DeSantis is the front-runner at 33 cents. Trump is at 26 cents and Biden is at 22 cents.
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