The lifeblood of many state racing organizations is their in-state breeding programs. On Thursday, Turf Paradise will honor those efforts in Arizona.
Understanding Race Conditions
One of the challenges for new horse players is understanding race conditions. Conditions are put into use so that horses in any given race are evenly matched. Baseball wouldn’t have much success if they had single A teams playing major league clubs. The same is true of horse racing.
Well in horse racing its the equivalent of having single A games and major league games back to back. You can see the slowest horses on the grounds in one race and then have a top level stakes in the very next one.
This is so important because sometimes there are clues within the conditions that help tell the story of how this horse got to this race.
State Bred Conditions
All of the races on the card at Turf Paradise on Thursday are state bred races. The pursues have juiced by different entities within the state to further incentivize breeding horses in Arizona. Only horses bred in Arizona are eligible to run.
This means that someone can’t send in their regally bred California or Kentucky bred horse to steal a bloated pot. In turn this means more mares for less heralded Arizona sires in future breeding years.
Signal in Conditions
The shrewd player will use these state bred conditions when analyzing the race. These state bred races can often be easier to win than some allowance or optional claiming races on the grounds depending on how they come up.
When looking at the past performances look for the race type column. If the racing condition is preceded by an “S” within a box indicate the race was limited to horses from that state. These are highlighted in green above.
An “R” before the race type indicates the race had special restrictions as to who was allowed to enter. This has been highlighted in yellow above.
Some races will have both and these races can often be extremely weak because of the small sample of horses that can enter. The races with no highlights are what handicappers call “open company”. This means that any horse can enter as long as they meet the main conditions of the race.
Thursday Full Card Analysis
Turf Paradise Race 1-Quarter Horses
Post: 12:25 PM PT; Purse: $18,000 Maiden, 300 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 12
- #1 FIRE AN RAIN (9-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s class & form.
- #3 EASY PRITZIS DASH (8-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today’s distance and surface conditions.
- #6 EYESA GOT EASYER (3-1) is a major player based on speed index.
- #10 FANCY CORONA CHICK (5-1) wouldn’t be a huge surprise in the winner’s circle.
Turf Paradise Race 2-Quarter Horses
Post: 12:55 PM PT; Purse: $30,000 Mark T Bars S., 250 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 10
- #9 CHOCOLATE WAGON (6-1) could avoid trouble and get a clear run from the outside.
- #1 TOO SASS FOR YOU (4-1) is always a player at these super sprint races. This one might be the most likely to be in the trifecta.
- #4 THATS WHATS UP (9-2) should be competitive today based on the horse’s speed & form.
- #5 OLD SCHOOL ICON (3-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.
Turf Paradise Race 3
Post: 1:25 PM PT; Purse: $14,140 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 5
- #5 AG MINISTER (4-5) has a great shot in the race given the speed & pace numbers.
- #3 D VON TAE (4-1) is bred to be good at this sprint distance. Against this group that might just be enough.
- #2 MYBESTISYETTOCOME (8-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts, but that should be taken with a grain of salt given the fact that it was all in maiden company.
- #1 RENEW (5-1) has to be respected based on the connections.
Turf Paradise Race 4
Post: 1:57 PM PT; Purse: $13,006 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7
- #1 FAMOUS ROCK STAR (8-5) has a great shot in the race given the the connections and superior class.
- #5 LINEMANS CHECK (9-2) could get a perfect pace scenario today.
- #7 SMOOTH PAPA (7-2) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.
- #2 ROUSING RUBBLE (6-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race.
Selections: 1-5-7-2 (Best Bet: #1 FAMOUS ROCK STAR)
Turf Paradise Race 5
Post: 2:28 PM PT; Purse: $60,000 Lyman and Bradley Rollins S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6
- #5 RAMBLIN’ MAN (9-5) is a bit of distance specialist and will play a strong hand in this spot.
- #1 HEY PILGRIM (5-2) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.
- #2 ANNIE’S BOY (2-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & pace numbers.
- #6 BOLD COWBOY (6-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s class & race flow.
Turf Paradise Race 6
Post: 2:56 PM PT; Purse: $60,000 Dwight D. Patterson S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 6
- #5 MOONLITE GRAHAM (1-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s connections & power rating.
- #4 MYSTIC REALITY (7-2) should be competitive today based on the horse’s speed & form.
- #1 HOLY CROSS (4-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & pace numbers.
- #6 STEPHEN JAMES (10-1) the price is right for a horse like this that loves the distance.
Turf Paradise Race 7
Post: 3:23 PM PT; Purse: $60,000 Gene Fleming Breeders’ Derby, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 7
- #5 BANGO FOR BUCKS (2-1) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including top connections & class.
- #6 BRAZEN NOW (9-5) is in with a major shot holding speed figure edges on the field.
- #4 RES IPSA LOQUITUR (5-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.
- #3 RAVINA LANE (6-1) looks like a competitive fringe player here.
Turf Paradise Race 8
Post: 3:50 PM PT; Purse: $60,000 Joanne Dye Breeders’ Oaks, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8
- #8 BAKERSFIELD BABE (10-1) is a runner I have some interest in. For the most part this day looks pretty formful, but this runner could be a sneaky way to get value into an otherwise chalk heavy day.
- #7 BIG HEAT (3-1) should be competitive today based on the horse’s speed & power rating.
- #6 MISCHIEVOUSOFFICER (5-2) should be competitive today based on the horse’s speed & record at the distance.
- #3 BOOSICAL LADY (6-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.
Turf Paradise Race 9
Post: 4:17 PM PT; Purse: $60,000 Ann Owens Distaff S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10
- #10 ARIZONA SUN (2-1) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & class.
- #5 MY CRAFTY GAL (5-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race.
- #2 FOUNDATION (4-1) looks competitive in this spot and has a solid shot to get it down today.
- #1 LAST PUNCH (9-2) could get a perfect pace scenario today.
Turf Paradise Race 10
Post: 4:45 PM PT; Purse: $14,140 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10
- #2 SWEET LADY LANA (9-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s stamina & race flow.
- #9 PENNY’S ANNIE (6-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.
- #4 BOLD INTENTION (3-1) makes sense in a field that lacks much to be inspired about.
- #3 STORMY GALE (6-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form.
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