We have been treated to some high-profile Sunday Night Football matchups so far this NFL season, and we will have another one in Week 9 with Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans visiting Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s a showdown between division leaders and 5-2 teams, with Tennessee in control in the AFC South and Kansas City in control in the AFC West.
The Titans have won five straight since an 0-2 start, but they will do well to extend that streak to six. With quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who missed last week’s 17-10 win over the Houston Texans, listed as questionable, the Titans are a double-digit dog.
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Information and Betting Odds
- Matchup: Tennessee Titans (5-2, 3-1 away, 1st in the AFC South) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (5-2, 2-1 home, 1st in the AFC West)
- Venue & Location: GEHA Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
- Date: Sunday, November 6, 2022
- Game Time: 8:20 p.m. Eastern Time (7:20 p.m. local time)
- How to Watch Titans vs. Chiefs: NBC
Titans vs. Chiefs Odds
Game odds are via FanDuel as of Sunday, November 6 at 7:10 a.m. Eastern.
- Tennessee Titans +12.5 (-110)
- Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 (-110)
- Over 45.5 (-110)
- Under 45.5 (-110)
- Tennessee Titans +420
- Kansas City Chiefs -560
Can Tennessee Win Without Tannehill?
Tannehill missed last week’s game in Houston with an ankle injury, with rookie Malik Willis making his first NFL start as a result. Willis threw only ten passes, completing six to his own team for 55 yards and completing another one to the opposition.
Instead of taking too many risks through the air with a green QB, the afternoon became the Derrick Henry show. Not only did Henry run for 100+ yards for the fourth straight game, but he compiled a season-high 219 yards on 32 carries and scored Tennessee’s two touchdowns.
It wasn’t all Henry though, with Dontrell Hilliard adding 83 yards on eight carries after going into the game with only six carries. All told, the Titans ran for 314 yards on 45 carries.
Tannehill has traveled with the team to Kansas City, and often enough, when someone who has been out or is dealing with a major injury concern is listed as questionable this close to the game, there’s a reason to be cautiously optimistic.
The veteran QB can frequently be a source of frustration, and the Titans arguably have a limited ceiling with him. But they are much more likely to have a chance against the Chiefs than if he isn’t playing.
The Chiefs are pretty decent against the run, ranking third in yards allowed per game (92.0) and seventh in yards allowed per carry (4.2).
That means little as far as how many carries Henry is going to get, because unless it is a blowout, he’s 99 percent certain to get 20+ carries.
Last Four Games for Derrick Henry
- Colts (away): 22 carries, 114 yards (5.2 yards per carry), TD
- Commanders (away): 28 carries, 102 yards (3.6 yards per carry), 2 TD
- Colts (home): 30 carries, 128 yards (4.3 yards per carry)
- Texans (away): 32 carries, 219 yards (6.8 yards per carry), 2 TD
But if things aren’t as productive on the ground, being able to have some semblance of balance can help, and Tannehill, limited as he may be, is more equipped to provide that at this point in time.
If Willis does get his second straight start, you aren’t likely to see him throw just ten passes, but how much will he be trusted to air it out? And if he is forced to have to make plays to give Tennessee a chance, can he do so without making costly mistakes?
Getting Henry more involved as a pass-catcher could be key. He had only one catch (on one target) for nine yards against the Texans, but he had at least two catches in each of the four games prior.
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Best Bets
Titans vs. Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs to win
Titans vs. Chiefs Best Bets: Titans/Chiefs over (Best Value: over 45.5 @ -110 at FanDuel, Caesars Sportsbook & BetRivers)
If you’ve been here for a little while, you might know by now that I don’t love double-digit spreads often. This matchup will not be an exception to that, given the uncertainty surrounding Tennessee’s QB situation.
If Tannehill plays, I like the Titans’ chances to be competitive.
Yes, in their lone game thus far this season against a championship contender, they were no match for the Buffalo Bills in a 41-7 road loss in Week 2.
But such blowouts are generally few and far between in the NFL, and even the Eagles didn’t cover against the Texans on Thursday.
Based on how cautious Tennessee’s offensive gameplan was against the Texans–and how it was still a 17-10 game even though the gameplan was executed almost as perfectly as you could have hoped offensively and defensively–I’m perfectly fine with the spread being what it is with Willis potentially in line to start again.
That doesn’t mean I’m comfortable backing it, but I do like the over here. After all, the Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in each of their seven games this season, and five of seven games have gone over the listed total.
More than anything, my recommendation for this matchup is to focus on the props.
Titans vs. Chiefs Player Prop Picks
- Derrick Henry over 87.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM): Henry’s on a good run going in, and he’s going to get a lot of carries no matter who starts at QB unless it is a blowout.
- Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions (+104 at BetRivers): Kelce has had seven or more catches four times this season, including three times in his last four games. He has had no fewer than seven targets in each game this season.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster over 52.5 receiving yards (-112 at BetRivers): This number is 55.5 other places, so getting it at 52.5 here feels like a real steal. After catching five passes (on five targets) for 113 yards and a score against the Bills, he had seven catches (on eight targets) for 124 yards and a score against the 49ers.
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