Thanksgiving Racing: Churchill Downs Falls City Analysis

By | November 22, 2022

The Thanksgiving card from Churchill Downs features the Falls City and Cardinal Stakes. Play Hard was installed as the odds on morning line favorite in the Falls City.

Churchill Downs- Race 1

Post: 11:30 AM ET; $32k Claiming going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 7

  • #3 FUNNYBET (2-1) gets the top selection. She looks to be the class of the field.
  • #6 AIDANIKE (5-2) has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip. This one could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
  • #4 EVERYOTHERWON (5-1) comes into the race in really good form.
  • #5 LA TOURISTA (5-1) is a good bet to hit the board in this type of race.

Selections: 3 – 6 – 4 – 5

Churchill Downs- Race 2

Post: 11:58 AM ET; $42k Maiden Claiming going 1 mile on dirt; Entries: 10

  • #3 ROYAL DAME (5-1) is the top pick. She shouldn’t have trouble with the 1 mile distance.
  • #10 RIGHT NOW (8-1) has to be respected going out for the combination of Mcpeek and Hernandez.
  • #6 GOODBETTERBEST (5-2) has the pedigree to be a major player in this spot.
  • #2 TRIBAL SPIRIT (8-1) feels like a fringe contender in this spot. She runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario here.

Selections: 3 – 10- 6 – 2

Churchill Downs- Race 3

Post: 12:26 PM ET; $134k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 3/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 7

  • #2 SILVER DUST (2-1) looks best here. He has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip. This one is a good bet to hit the board in this type of race.
  • #5 BANDIT SWANSON (9-2) has to be respected going out for the combination of Hernandez and Murrill. This one seems to fit well enough here.
  • #1 BLUEGRASS PARKWAY (3-1) shouldn’t have trouble with the 1 3/16 mile distance.
  • #3 MAX EXPRESS (8-1) isn’t without hope. He seems to fit well enough here.

Selections: 2 – 5 – 1 – 3

Churchill Downs- Race 4

Post: 12:55 PM ET; $60k Claiming going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 7

  • #1 DRIVE FOR FUN (3-1) gets the top selection. He has the top overall power rating in the group.
  • #2 CARBONITE (7-2) looks to be the class of the field. This one goes out for the Sharp barn and gets Gaffalione in the irons.
  • #6 CENTURION (9-2) has races good enough to beat this group.
  • #4 CHASING RAINBOWS (6-1) feels like a fringe contender in this spot. He should be part of the early pace in this spot.

Selections: 1 – 2 – 6 – 4

Churchill Downs- Race 5

Post: 1:24 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 8

  • #7 RUTHLESS RUA (3-1) should improve off the first start and is the top pick. She should be part of the early pace.
  • #8 BOARDWALK QUEEN (7-2) appears to be a major player in this race wit a small step forward from the previous tries.
  • #1 SHARP TAP (6-1) hit the board on debut and will look to take another step forward here.
  • #5 SURE CAN (5-2) could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end at second asking.

Selections: 7 – 8 – 1 – 5

Churchill Downs- Race 6

Post: 1:54 PM ET; $60k Maiden Claiming going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

  • #1 VOW (5-1) should improve off the first start and looks best here. It won’t take much improvement off the debut to beat these types.
  • #7 DELIGHTOF THE NILE (3-1) seems to fit well enough here. This one has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip.
  • #2 STORY HOUR (10-1) is a price horse and looks to be the class of the field.
  • #4 MARKSWOMAN (5-2) is well bred for this spot. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.

Selections: 1 – 7 – 2 – 4

Churchill Downs- Race 7

Post: 2:24 PM ET; $68k Claiming going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

  • #2 UPSTRIKER (4-1) appears to be a major player in this race. He has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip.
  • #3 OLLIEMEISTER (3-1) has races good enough to beat this group. This one comes into the race in really good form.
  • #7 COLD AS HELL (7-2) could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
  • #5 FLAGS UP (8-1) seems like the kind of horse you want on tickets but not in the top spot.

Selections: 2 – 3 – 7 – 5

Churchill Downs- Race 8

Post: 2:54 PM ET; $134k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 10

  • #6 ILLIOGAMI (6-1) is the top pick. She could get the right setup in this race. This one will likely have a lot to do in the lane, but could get up with a competitive run.
  • #7 MICROCAP (12-1) is a price horse and has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts. This one comes into the race in really good form.
  • #8 LADY FROSTED (8-1) projects to sit mid pack and come with one run.
  • #5 MISTY VEIL (4-1) looks to be the class of the field.

Selections: 6 – 7 – 8 – 5

Churchill Downs- Race 9

Post: 3:24 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 15

  • #6 DAKOTA RUN (5-1) looks best here. He comes into the race in really good form.
  • #3 SPEAKINOFTHEDEVIL (7-2) should improve off the first start and goes out for Asmussen and Gaffalione. This one is well bred for this spot.
  • #11 AERATOR (8-1) appears to be a major player in this race for Kenny Mcpeek and Brian Hernandez.
  • #7 CRAVENSWORTH (6-1) debuts here and gets a promising morning line.

Selections: 6 – 3 – 11- 7

Churchill Downs- Race 10

Post: 3:53 PM ET; $500k Falls City S. going 1 1/8 miles on dirt; Entries: 6

Played Hard | Blood Horse
  • #1 LEADER OF THE BAND (9-2) gets the top selection. She will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
  • #4 PLAYED HARD (4-5) has the top overall power rating in the group.
  • #3 MOON SWAG (5-1) goes out for the Walsh barn and gets Gaffalione in the irons.
  • #2 BELLAMORE (5-1) comes into the race in really good form.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 3 – 2

Churchill Downs- Race 11

Post: 4:22 PM ET; $300k Cardinal S. going 1 1/8 miles on turf; Entries: 10

  • #6 ADVENTURING (9-5) is the top pick. She has races good enough to beat this group.
  • #5 DALIKA (2-1) appears to be a major player in this race. She looks to be the class of the field. This one has really consistent pace figures which should work well in a moderately paced race.
  • #7 SUNNY ONE (8-1) has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
  • #9 CURLY RUTH (10-1) is a good bet to hit the board in this type of race.

Selections: 6 – 5 – 7 – 9

Churchill Downs- Race 12

Post: 4:50 PM ET; $92k Maiden Special Weight going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 10

  • #5 SECRET STATEMENT (3-1) should improve off the first start and looks best here.
  • #1 MISCHIEVOUS GAL (5-1) ran well enough on debut to be a factor here.
  • #7 EYES OF GOLD (7-2) makes sense on speed figures.
  • #3 RING TWICE (8-1) has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed.

Selections: 5 – 1 – 7 – 3

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