Tampa Bay Downs Saturday: Horse Racing Analysis (1/14)

By | January 12, 2023

The Saturday card from Tampa Bay Downs features 3 stakes races. The Pasco, the Wayward Lass, and the Gasparilla stakes are all carded for the weekend.

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 1

Post: 12:32 PM ET; $13.5k Claiming going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 10

  • #10 SHOO SHINE (6-1) gets the top selection. He comes into the race in really good form. This one has races good enough to beat this group.
  • #6 STAY HOME (6-1) could be in with a shot in this race. He has to be respected going out for the combination of Delgado and Gallardo.
  • #9 ROOKIE SALSA (7-2) has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed.
  • #3 ASK FOR BODE (3-1) makes sense on speed figures. This one projects to sit mid pack and come with one run.

Selections: 10- 6 – 9 – 3

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 2

Post: 1:02 PM ET; $17k Starter Optional Claiming going 1 mile 40 yards on dirt; Entries: 8

  • #7 HARD LIGHTING (9-2) is the top pick. He has races good enough to beat this group. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
  • #4 GHOST STALKER (7-2) shouldn’t have trouble with the 1 mile 40 yard distance.
  • #2 EXCHEQUER (4-1) could be in with a shot in this race. He has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts. This one looks to be the class of the field.
  • #5 RATTLESNAKE RIDGE (12-1) is a price horse and isn’t without hope. He has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.

Selections: 7 – 4 – 2 – 5

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 3

Post: 1:33 PM ET; $32k Maiden Special Weight going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

  • #7 NOTAH (9-5) should improve off the first start and looks best here. He has to be respected going out for the combination of Terranova and Camacho.
  • #3 FALK (5-1) looks to be the class of the field. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
  • #5 THREE FOLD (7-2) should be part of the early pace in this spot. This one is well bred for this spot.
  • #6 ALL OUR MUNNY (6-1) ran a solid figure on debut and could step forward here.

Selections: 7 – 3 – 5 – 6

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 4

Post: 2:03 PM ET; $28k Allowance Optional Claiming going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

  • #2 OLIVIA DARLING (5-2) gets the top selection. She shouldn’t have trouble with the 6 furlong distance. This one could get the right setup in this race.
  • #7 PINK SHOELACES (6-1) could be in with a shot in this race. She has races good enough to beat this group. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
  • #9 EAST WING (15-1) is a price horse and feels like a fringe contender in this spot. She could get the right setup in this race.
  • #4 NIGHT CAP (3-1) isn’t without hope. She has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.

Selections: 2 – 7 – 9 – 4

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 5

Post: 2:33 PM ET; $28k Allowance going 1 1/16 miles on turf; Entries: 10

  • #2 BATTLE SCARS (10-1) is a price horse and is the top pick. He will be rolling late and has a good closing kick that could get the job done here.
  • #8 ALMANZO (15-1) is a price horse and makes sense on speed figures.
  • #3 ROCK THE STARS (5-1) could be in with a shot based on some of the speed figures run in recent starts.
  • #7 RAISING MOON (3-1) could likely have a lot to do in the lane, but could get up with a competitive run.

Selections: 2 – 8 – 3 – 7

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 6

Post: 3:03 PM ET; $125k Pasco S. going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 6

  • #3 HANDSOME PLAYBOY (7-2) looks best here. He makes sense on speed figures. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
  • #4 CHAMPIONS DREAM (6-5) appears to be a major player in this race. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
  • #6 ZYDECEAUX (12-1) is a price horse and has races good enough to beat this group.
  • #1 SHAQ DIESEL (10-1) projects to sit mid pack and come with one run. This one runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario here.

Selections: 3 – 4 – 6 – 1

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 7

Post: 3:33 PM ET; $50k Wayward Lass S. going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 7

  • #1 BETH’S DREAM (6-5) gets the top selection. She shouldn’t have trouble with the 1 1/16 mile distance. This one may benefit from a hot pace up front.
  • #7 PASS THE CHAMPAGNE (3-1) appears to be a major player in this race. She seems to fit well enough here. This one projects to sit mid pack and come with one run.
  • #6 TAP DANCE FEVER (6-1) has to be respected going out for the combination of Bennett and Ferrer.
  • #3 MOLLY’S ANGEL (9-2) has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.

Selections: 1 – 7 – 6 – 3

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 8

Post: 4:03 PM ET; $27k Maiden Special Weight going 1 mile on turf; Entries: 10

  • #2 ASPRAY (8-5) debuts here and is the top pick. She has to be respected going out for the combination of Brown and Camacho.
  • #8 FINANCIAL ADVICE (5-2) goes out at first asking for Brown and Diaz. The morning line says this one is a player.
  • #4 BRETON GIRL (7-2) should improve off the first start and should be competitive in this spot. She has races good enough to beat this group. This one comes into the race in really good form.
  • #5 ROMAN FLAME (6-1) feels like a fringe contender in this spot. She makes sense on speed figures.

Selections: 2 – 8 – 4 – 5

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 9

Post: 4:33 PM ET; $125k Gasparilla S. going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 8

Dorth Vader | DRF
  • #4 DORTH VADER (3-2) looks best here. She has the top overall power rating in the group. This one shouldn’t have trouble with the 7 furlong distance.
  • #8 AWESOME PIC (9-2) appears to be a major player in this race. She seems to fit well enough here. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
  • #3 DREAMING OF SNOW (9-2) has to be respected going out for the combination of Bennett and Camacho. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
  • #2 PERSONAL PURSUIT (4-1) shouldn’t have any issue getting the distance in this spot.

Selections: 4 – 8 – 3 – 2

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 10

Post: 5:03 PM ET; $27k Maiden Special Weight going 1 mile on turf; Entries: 10

  • #1 GALILEO’S JEWEL (5-2) should improve off the first start and gets the top selection. She hit the board at this level on debut.
  • #4 MODERN LOVE (6-1) should improve off the first start and should have the foundation to get the mile at second asking.
  • #3 SEAWITCH (20-1) is a price horse and has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
  • #5 REKINDLED (15-1) is the kind of horse that feels like he could outrun the odds and hit the board at a nice price.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 3 – 5

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