Rockies vs. Padres (8/4): Will Musgrove finally pick up his first win since June?

By | August 4, 2022

Could last night have gone any better for the San Diego Padres? With new additions Josh Bell, Brandon Drury, and some guy named Juan Soto in tow, the Padres routed the Colorado Rockies 9-1 for their fifth straight win.

A five-run first set the Padres on their way, highlighted by a grand slam by Drury, who was acquired from Cincinnati.

Soto went 1 for 3 with a run scored in his Padres debut, tallying a single in the eighth for his first hit with his new club.

What will today’s series finale hold for the new-look Padres? They will be aiming for their sixth win in a row and hoping to give All-Star pitcher Joe Musgrove a much-needed win.

Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Colorado Rockies (46-61, 16-34 away, 5th in the NL West) vs. San Diego Padres (61-46, 31-22 home, 2nd in the NL West)
  • Venue & Location: Petco Park (San Diego, California)
  • Date: Thursday, August 4, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:10 p.m. Eastern Time (1:10 p.m. local time)
  • Rockies vs. Padres TV Info: MLB Network

Rockies vs. Padres Pitching Matchup

  • Colorado Rockies: Kyle Freeland (2022: 20 starts, 6-7, 4.63 ERA)
  • San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove (2022: 18 starts, 8-4, 2.65 ERA)

Rockies vs. Padres Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. Odds from other reputable legal online sportsbooks may also be featured in this article.

Moneyline

  • Colorado Rockies +235
  • San Diego Padres -290

Over/Under

  • Over 7.5 (-118)
  • Under 7.5 (-104)

Run Line

  • Colorado Rockies +1.5 (+108)
  • San Diego Padres -1.5 (-130)

Will Musgrove’s Winless Run End Against Colorado?

Since the start of this season, Musgrove has been among the leading NL Cy Young Award candidates. However, his candidacy has taken a hit over the last month and a half, and he now finds himself somewhere behind the likes of Sandy Alcantara and Max Fried.

After going 8-0 in his first 12 starts, Musgrove has gone 0-4 in his last six starts.

Season Splits for Joe Musgrove

  • First 12 Starts: 8-0, 1.59 ERA, 79 IP, 56 H, 18 R (14 ER), 5 HR, 17 BB, 81 K
  • Last 6 Starts: 0-4, 4.95 ERA, 36.1 IP, 31 H, 20 R (20 ER), 6 HR, 10 BB, 33 K

In his first 12 starts, Musgrove allowed three or more runs only twice, but he has done so four times in his last six starts.

In July, he was 0-2 with a 4.24 ERA in four starts. He actually pitched well in his two home starts, however.

On July 7, he received a no-decision in a 10-inning win over the rival Giants after allowing just one hit in seven scoreless innings, and in his most recent start last Saturday, he allowed two runs, four hits, and two walks and struck out eight in six innings in taking the loss against the Minnesota Twins.

So, there should be a lot of optimism that his winless run will come to an end against the Rockies. In four home starts against Colorado since joining his hometown Padres last year, Musgrove has pitched three scoreless outings.

For what it’s worth, the Rockies have won each of Freeland’s last three starts and each of his three starts against the Padres this season. However, the 29-year-old lefty is just 1-3 with a 6.13 ERA in seven daytime starts in 2022.

Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Picks

Rockies vs. Padres Prediction: Padres to win

Rockies vs. Padres Picks: Padres -1.5 (Best Value: -130 at FanDuel & Caesars Sportsbook)

The Padres hit and score much better on the road and in night games, so those splits don’t line up all that well for them in that regard.

But with what their new additions bring to the table, you can throw splits out of the window here.

Will Soto Show Out Against Freeland?

Interestingly, even though Soto and Freeland played in different divisions to this point, there are only 19 pitchers Soto has faced more often.

Thus far, Freeland has had the upper hand, with Soto going 2 for 13 with a double, a home run, two RBI, and two walks in 15 plate appearances.

Will that change today? Soto is hitting only .223 against lefties and .224 against southpaw starters this season, but for his career, he is hitting .289 against left-handed starters and .276 overall against lefties.

At FanDuel, Soto is +135 to record his first RBI with his new team and +340 to hammer his first home run as a Padre.

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