Red Sox vs. Yankees (September 24): Judge faces favorable matchup in chase for 61 (and 62)

By | September 24, 2022

So far, the latest chapter of the Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry has produced two tight games, both won by the AL East leaders.

But what is yet to happen is Aaron Judge’s 61st home run. Instead, his quest to tie and/or break Roger Maris’s 61-year-old franchise and American League record continues into this afternoon’s matchup at Yankee Stadium.

Last night, one notable home run milestone was reached, as Albert Pujols hit the 699th and 700th homers of his MLB career to lead the Cardinals over the Dodgers.

Will that give Judge an extra lift to reach his milestone today? For the first time in the series, the pitching matchup is in his favor.

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Boston Red Sox (72-78, 35-41 away, 5th in the AL East) vs. New York Yankees (92-58, 54-22 home, 1st in the AL East)
  • Venue & Location: Yankee Stadium (New York, New York)
  • Date: Saturday, September 24, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:05 p.m. Eastern Time
  • How to Watch Red Sox vs. Yankees: MLB Network

Red Sox vs. Yankees Pitching Matchup

  • Boston: RHP Nick Pivetta (2022: 30 starts, 10-11, 4.35 ERA)
  • New York: Domingo German (2022: 12 appearances – 11 starts, 2-3, 3.12 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Moneyline

  • Boston Red Sox +146
  • New York Yankees -174

Over/Under

  • Over 8.5 (-114)
  • Under 8.5 (-106)

Run Line

  • Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-137)
  • New York Yankees -1.5 (+114)

Aaron Judge vs. Roger Maris Record Chase: Is Today the Day?

As the saying goes, the waiting is the hardest part. It seems inevitable that Aaron Judge’s record chase will have a successful end sooner rather than later, based on his numbers this season and the tear he had been on entering this series. But he hasn’t gone deep since his ninth-inning blast against the Pirates on Tuesday.

Fortunately, the waiting could very well come to an end today. In the first two games of the Red Sox-Yankees series, the starting pitching matchup was not in his favor.

On Thursday, he went up against Michael Wacha, against whom he was hitless. Last night, he went up against Rich Hill, against whom he hasn’t homered.

Today, however, he faces Nick Pivetta, against whom he is 5 for 11 with two homers. Here is a look at his odds to homer, according to some of the best online sportsbooks out there:

  • FanDuel: +210
  • Caesars Sportsbook: +170
  • BetRivers: +180

However, if you don’t think that today will be the day, at BetRivers, he is -235 to not homer.

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Best Bets

Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction: Yankees to win

Red Sox vs. Yankees Best Bets: Yankees -1.5 (Best Value: +118 at Caesars Sportsbook & BetRivers), Red Sox/Yankees over 8.5 (Best Value: -114 at FanDuel) & Yankees team total over 4.5 (Best Value: -115 at FanDuel, Caesars Sportsbook & BetRivers)

After scoring the winning run in their final at-bat on back-to-back nights, today’s game might be a little more comfortable for the Yankees.

Pivetta has not fared well against the Yankees at all. In seven career appearances (six starts), he is 0-3 with an 8.78 ERA. In 27.2 innings, he has allowed 34 hits (nine homers), 27 runs (all earned), and 13 walks.

This season, he is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA in four starts against the Bronx Bombers.

Nick Pivetta vs. the New York Yankees in 2022

  • April 9 (Yankee Stadium): 5.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R (4 ER), 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
  • July 10 (Fenway Park): 3.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R (6 ER), 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
  • July 16 (Yankee Stadium): 4.1 IP, 7 H, 7 R (7 ER), 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
  • September 13 (Fenway Park): 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R (3 ER), 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K

Judge homered off of Pivetta in the two most recent matchups, both of which were part of two-homer games for Judge. For what it’s worth, he is +1700 (at FanDuel) to hit two or more homers today, if you think that pattern will be followed today.

In addition to Judge, Anthony Rizzo (7 for 19, 2 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI) and Giancarlo Stanton (9 for 23, 2B, 3 HR, 5 RBI) have excellent numbers against Pivetta.

German has had a bit of a funky schedule as of late, but after serving as a one-inning opener against the Rays on three days of rest two weeks ago and then going 1.2 innings in relief against the Brewers eight days ago, things should be back to normal today.

The Yankees are 5-0 in German’s home starts this season, with three of the wins coming by 2+ runs. And there have been a lot of runs in both his home starts (over 8.5 in four of five home starts) and this month (over 8.5 in all three starts).

So, things line up well for all three of the aforementioned bets in what could very well be a record-tying or record-setting afternoon for Aaron Judge. You don’t have to back all of them, but there is a lot of good value to invest in, whatever you choose.

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