Parx December 7: Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes Analysis

By | December 7, 2021

Midweek is typically a downtime in the racing calendar. 2nd tier tracks run races as the A tracks prepare for the next weekend. This week Parx Racecourse is holding a rare midweek stakes race. The Pennsylvania Nursey Stakes will be run at7 furlongs on dirt for state bred 2 year olds.

Playing Parx

Parx is a unique track. It offers mostly lower level horses and can be a bit quirky in how it plays. Horseplayers are wise to watch the replays of Monday’s card which can be found on most online wagering platforms for hints about any possible running profile that may be having unusual success.

General Profile

Using the Betting News track bias tool it is clear that horses most likely to win races on the dirt at Parx are rated as either “fast” or “fastest” from a speed perspective and have a pace indicator of “leader”.

The Rail

One thing about Parx that seems to be particularly important is understanding how the rail is playing. Some days the inner most post position will have almost no chance while other days horses can be carried all the way to the finish in the same position.

In order to determine whether the rail is gold, fair, or dead look at Monday’s results and determine how horses on the rail ran.

When doing this it is important to remember that result alone does not indicate bias. Look instead at how the rail horses ran in relation to expectation. If 5 favorites won on the rail it may just be a fair track, but if three horses at 10-1 or more hit the board from the rail that may suggest it is faster there. Inversely if none of our 5 rail favorites win on Monday it could suggest that is not the place to be.

Parx Tuesday Analysis

Parx Race 1

Post: 12:10 PM ET; Purse: $42,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 6

#5 ESTATE (9-5) has a great shot in the race given the competitive speed & superior pace numbers. #2 JUSTHAPPY (5-2) should be competitive as well based figures. The horse has already hit the board at the level. #4 COLLIN’S GREY LADY (5-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. #6 BIENVENUE (9-2) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race.

Selections: 5-2-4-6

Parx Race 2

Post: 12:37 PM ET; Purse: $26,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 8

#6 SUBSIDIARY (4-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & pace numbers. #7 PECAN PATTIE (3-1) is worth a look here given the connections & overall power rating. #2 HAY BUCK (5-1) merits consideration in this spot based on stamina & the projected race setup. #4 GRACE’S DRAMA (6-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today’s distance and surface conditions.

Selections: 6-7-2-4

Parx Race 3

Post: 1:04 PM ET; Purse: $23,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 7

#6 BIG BEAUTIFUL WALL (6-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & connections. #2 HOLIDAY BONUS (2-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & power rating. #7 MR THRIFTY (7-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s advantages in stamina & pace numbers. #1 EXCALIBUR (6-1) has an outsiders chance at a decent price.

Selections: 6-2-7-1

Parx Race 4

Post: 1:31 PM ET; Purse: $22,000 Claiming, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

#5 THE RIGHT PATH (5-2) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. #4 R GOODTIME CHARLIE (7-2) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done. #9 GOLDEN SPOKE (5-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the stretch which can play a major factor in these extended sprints. #7 LAZARETTO (6-1) is worth a look at 6-1 but you won’t want this one if the price drops more than a point or two.

Selections: 5-4-9-7

Parx Race 5

Post: 1:58 PM ET; Purse: $30,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

#8 SHEZ A DOUBLETAKE (3-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. #7 SHE’SFIRSTCLASS (12-1) is worth a look here given edges in race flow & pace numbers. #5 A LOOKER (9-2) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today’s distance and surface conditions. #6 LA LA LUCY (7-2) has to be considered a player based on metrics, but the price seems a bit short.

Selections: 8-7-5-6

Parx Race 6

Post: 2:25 PM ET; Purse: $28,000 Starter Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

#4 SEVIER (2-1) has a great shot in the race given the advantages in speed & power rating. #1 JAMMINWITHBRANDON (7-2) should be competitive in this spot, but seems just a touch below the favorite in terms of talent. #6 THEY SHOT SONNY (9-2) is the best price of the likeliest winners #7 MANOLETE (12-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done at a nice price.

Selections: 4-1-6-7

Parx Race 7

Post: 2:52 PM ET; Purse: $48,000 Allowance, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6

#1 SHESALITTLE EDGY (9-5) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. #2 MADAM MEENA (7-2) should be competitive today based on the horse’s advantages in speed & power rating. #4 GLORY DIA (5-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s advantages in record at the distance & pace numbers. #3 HEY MAMALUKE (8-1) is worth a look as a live longshot to boost the vertical payouts.

Selections: 1-2-4-3

Parx Race 8

Post: 3:19 PM ET; Purse: $45,000 Allowance, 1 Mile 70 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 9

#1 I AM REDEEMED (9-5) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form. #6 ROAN MOUNTAIN (4-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s advantages in stamina & power rating. #3 SUCCESSFUL CURE (5-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. #4 THE JONES BOY (9-2) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.

Selections: 1-6-3-4

Parx Race 9

Post: 3:50 PM ET; Purse: $200,000 Pennsylvania Nursery S., 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

#5 DISCO EBO (9-5) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & form. #4 UNCLE BUDDY (3-1) is also worth a look here as he is competitive in a number of key metrics. #1 DANCE CODE (6-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in stamina & class. #9 VINE JET (8-1) has to be respected based on the connections.

Selections: 5-4-1-9 (Best Bet: #5)

Parx Race 10

Post: 4:17 PM ET; Purse: $20,000 Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 9

#7 PRIVATE NETWORK (3-1) has a great shot in the race given the advantages in speed & pace numbers. #9 MASTER OF WAR (5-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today. #3 HACHACHA (4-1) certainly has a chance to get the job here. The morning line is about the lowest price I want to take on this one. #6 CITY GUY (5-1) has to be respected based on the connections.

Selections: 7-9-3-6

For more handicapping insights into Parx check out the free handicapping tools provided by Betting News.

The post Parx December 7: Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes Analysis first appeared on Betting News.

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