We are back baby! The NHL is back in full swing and boy am I excited.
I love watching and betting on hockey and last season I found my favorite market to bet on, maybe in all sports and that is Shots on Goal.
The market really took off near the end of the season and really got big in the playoffs.
Now, with a fresh season ahead of us, let’s have a profitable and fun time finding the advantageous spots of guys putting puck on net.
If you are new to this market, here are a couple of things to keep in mind.
- A shot on goal is described as when a player takes a shot that is either saved by the goaltender or is scored.
- A shot that is blocked by a defender or another player, hits the post or never reaches the goalie does not count as a SOG.
- Always be mindful and pay attention to stat corrections. After the game, sometimes shots are taken away or added depending on how they were deemed during the game. Triple check the stats post game to make sure.
Ok with that being said, lets dive in to the slate of games and find the value!
All Odds available at FanDuel
Dougie Hamilton o3.5 SOGs (-130)
Going straight back to Dougie even though he feel short a couple nights ago.
He had 3 and was a stat corrections away from cashing.
When a guy hooks me and he has a great matchup the next game, I always take him again.
The Devils get the Coyotes at home tonight and the Yotes allow the 2nd most shots in the league at 35 per game.
Great spot for Dougie to keep firing tonight.
Aleksander Barkov o3.5 SOGs (+105)
This begins the first of 4 plus money plays that I love for the value today.
Barkov has been firing. He has been without Matthew Tkachuk for a couple games, yes, so that has helped his numbers.
But even with Takchuk in there, he has been firing away.
He has hit his shots in 7 of his last 9 and 5 of his last 7 with Tkachuk.
The Oilers allow the 5th most shots in the league and the Panthers take the most shots.
Recipe for success.
Leon Draisaitl o3.5 SOGs (+135)
Let’s stay in this game and I have to give a shout out to my guy @WMMacMiller, who was my first guest on my weekly MORNING COFFEE show.
You can see the whole show here and be sure to tune in every Thursday at 11EST/10 CST for the Best Bets of the morning!
On the show, NZ talked about Draisaitl and his analysis was spot on.
Draisaitl has hit in 3 straight and will need to keep firing without Evander Kane in the lineup.
If they keep setting it at +130, you have to keep taking it.
Mika Zibanejad o3.5 SOGs (+100)
I love Zibanejad tonight and am very surprised it’s + money.
I am not overthinking this one here. He just had 5 shots and 2 goals, coming off a stretch of missing his shots in 3 straight games.
This is also about the Preds, who lead the league in penalty minutes.
Mika does a lot of damage on the Power play and the Preds can’t stay out of the box.
Love this spot for ZBad to be a Bad man tonight.
Brock Nelson/Nico Hischier o2.5 SOGs Parlay (+165)
I love this play.
Both of these guys have been absolutely red hot and for the plus money value, you can’t beat it.
Nelson has been on fire, hitting his shots in 7 of his last 9 games.
So that’s a great start obviously, but the matchup makes it beautiful.
The Isle play the Blue Jackets, who allow the 3rd most shots in the league at 35 per game.
Love Brock to fire away tonight.
Nico is on fire and I wanted to play as much as possible in this game because of the matchup.
He has hit his shots in 6 of his last 7 games and in 4 straight games.
As I mentioned with Hamilton to kick us off, the Yotes allow the 2nd most shots in the league.
Hischier will have plenty of chances to fire away again.
These two guys will have plenty of chances to get 3 shots tonight and cash this 2 teamer.
Let’s end with one more 2 teamer.
Rasmus Dahlin 2.5/ Brent Burns o2.5 SOGs (+164)
I don’t normally play 2 2 teamers but the value on the board today was too good to not ride one more.
Rasmus Dahlin is making a serious case for the Norris trophy this season. He has been awesome on both ends of the ice and has been firing away.
He has hit his shots in 7 straight games. Say less.
Brent Burns has been outstanding for the Hurricanes since his offseason move from the Sharks.
He has hit his shots in 7 of his last 9 and the Canes have a great matchup tonight against the Avs.
The Avs allow the 10th most shots in the league, at almost 34 per game.
Burns will be firing tonight and we only need 3 on net to cash our 2 teamer!
That is all I have for today!
Enjoy the NHL slate and be sure to stay tuned all season long for Shot props and much more. Follow me on Twitter @SweatpantsJesus and @BN_Content to stay up to date and let’s have a great NHL season!
HOW TO LADDER SHOTS ON GOAL
If you have never laddered a prop before, here is how I do it and you can adjust to your liking.
I play the original line for 1 unit. So for this example the line is 2.5 SOGs.
I then play the next number up, which in this case, is 4+ SOGs, for a half unit.
Lastly, I go up to 5+ and play that for 0.25 units.
o2.5 SOGs- the orignal line, for 1 unit.
4+- 0.5 unit
5+- 0.25 unit
Laddering this way allows you to break even with a small profit if the player hits their orignal line.
Then, you ‘climb the ladder.’ The higher up the ladder you go, the more profit you make.
I don’t go any higher than 2 spots above the original line just to make sure I don’t invest too heavily and get screwed by a bad showing.
But by laddering this way, as long as the player hits their original line, you are guaranteed profit.
It’s lower risk higher reward than betting a standard line but you have to choose your spots.
You can apply this to all players and all sports. It is fun to do and if done correctly, you can really cash in on some nice plus money plays.
The post NHL Shots on Goal Player Props – Teach Me How to Dougie…again appeared first on Betting News.