Sports betting has grown more popular over recent years as more of the world is given access to it. The NBA has become one of the top leagues to bet on, especially when it comes to player props.
For those unfamiliar with the term, a “player prop” is a bet that has to deal with a single player’s performance. It can reflect anything from how many points or assists they’ll finish with to the number of combined steals and blocks they’ll have. The possibilities are endless.
This guide has everything you need to know about the different types of NBA player props, as well as where the best betting value is. We’ll also take a look at a few players with who you can likely have prop betting success with for the remainder of the 2021-22 NBA season.
Types of NBA Player Props
When it comes to NBA player props, most of the most popular ones surround a total where you’ll have to choose the over or under. Here’s an example:
- LeBron James — Points: Over 30.5 (-105), Under 30.5 (-115)
In the above scenario, a hypothetical sportsbook has set LeBron James’ point total at 30.5. He then has -105 odds to hit the over (31-plus points) and -115 odds to hit the under (30 or fewer points).
That same formula applies to player props regarding other statistical categories, such as rebounds and assists. These props are popular because they’re quick and easy, while the winnings can add up if you turn them into a parlay.
Nevertheless, it’s still important to do research before wagering on NBA player props. Things like player and team trends, as well as matchups, are all important things to take into consideration. Just because a player is a superstar doesn’t mean they’ll excel equally against the 29 other teams.
Where is the Best Value in NBA Player Props?
Although most NBA player props work the same, that doesn’t mean they all provide the same value.
Bettors can get a lot of value with point props, especially when a player is on a hot streak. The Chicago Bulls’ DeMar DeRozan had a stretch where he hit at least 35-plus points, which was great for bettors who continued going with the over on his props.
Rebound and assist-based prop bets also have great value since they’re two of the more commonly achieved NBA statistics. They’re also even more valuable when you can find combo props for players who can do both, like Nikola Jokic or Luka Doncic.
There’s also great value to be had when you turn player props into parlays. You’ll often see sportsbooks post screenshots to their social media of bettors winning big on parlays, with several of their legs coming from player props. While winning big is far from guaranteed, player props are one way to get there.
Another promising market reflects the total of three-pointers made by any given player. If someone is playing against a team with poor perimeter defense that’s prone to giving up the long ball, you could find some nice value with over. At the same time, even the top NBA defenses can silence the best three-point shooters, which is why matchup research is important.
You’ll likely want to stay away from block and steal-related props. Even though you can still make money off of them, blocks and rebounds occur more infrequently compared to the other statistics. If you’re hoping to win big on these markets, expectations should be tempered.
Best Players for Prop Betting
While prop betting can be fun, not all players are the same. Some players are just better at delivering for their bettors than others. Here’s a look at some of the more trustworthy options for the remainder of the 2021-22 NBA season.
The Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Doncic is one of the best exciting players on the planet because he can do it all. He can score, make plays and rebound with the best of them, leading him to become a walking triple-double on most nights.
Having said that, Doncic’s ability to do it all makes him one of the best prop betting options. Whether you’re looking at points, rebounds or assists, there’s a good chance that he can deliver on the over even when the under is favored.
Doncic is playing like the NBA’s best player lately, averaging 32.2 points, 10.1 rebounds and 9.0 assists in his last 20 games. He’s also fortunate because the Mavericks have the fourth-pastiest remaining schedule this season, with their opponents averaging a .469 winning percentage.
With such easy matchups, Doncic has a great chance to continue his success down the stretch of the NBA season, making bettors happy along the way.
While there was never doubting James Harden’s talents, it was clear that he was playing below his capabilities when he was with the Brooklyn Nets. That isn’t the case now that he’s with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Like Doncic, Harden can do a little bit of everything. He’s averaging 27.3 PTS/9.0 REB/12.3 AST in three games with the 76ers. He has a double-double and triple-double over that small sample size, making him an ideal candidate for combo player props.
Joel Embiid, who is the current 2022 NBA MVP favorite, usually takes most of the attention away from the opposition, leaving Harden with open shots or the perfect opportunity to set a teammate up. The result is bettors seeing success with both point and assist props.
The 76ers players have been open about how they’ve never had a playmaker like Harden before. Assuming this trend continues, he’ll likely be a reliable choice for sustained assist prop success down the stretch.
Despite the Los Angeles Lakers’ disastrous season, LeBron James continues to play like one of the league’s top-five players. The 37-year-old is averaging 28.0 PTS/8.0 REB/6.2 AST on the season and is showing no signs of slowing down.
Being one of the best players in the world means LeBron usually delivers on his props. However, the Lakers’ recent lack of success actually works in his favor.
LeBron has spent most of the season chasing the NBA’s all time-scoring record. With the Lakers getting blown out often, he’s stayed on the floor during garbage time to help move closer to the record. In fact, he’s had at least 25 points in 26 of his last 27 games.
NBA bettors certainly won’t complain if LeBron stays on for garbage time. Although he’s chasing personal goals, his extended playing time has resulted in bettors hitting the over on different statistical categories. With the Lakers showing no signs of turning things around, don’t hesitate the over when it comes to “King James’” prop bets.
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