We’ve got a Sunshine State showdown in Tampa this afternoon as Tom Brady and the Bucs host the struggling Dolphins. The Dolphins are definitely not off to the start they were hoping for, and things look like they are going to get worse this week. The Bucs are looking to get their mojo going again after a loss and an ugly win on the road over the last couple of weeks. Based on the NFL betting odds for this matchup, the Bucs should have a comfortable win today.
Miami Dolphins (1-3) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1), CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET
Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Betting Odds
- Miami Dolphins +460
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -620
- OVER 47.5 (-118)
- UNDER 47.5 (-104)
- Miami Dolphins +10.5 (-102)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5 (-118)
Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Sunday, October 10, 2021 at 12:10 p.m. ET. Want to see NFL betting odds from several top online sportsbooks for every NFL matchup each week? Check out our NFL odds.
Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Betting Consensus
- 0% Miami Dolphins
- 100% Bay Buccaneers
Total (at O/U 48)
- 25% OVER 48
- 75% UNDER 48
Spread (at +/-11)
- 25% Miami Dolphins +11
- 75% Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11
Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup: NFL Betting Picks, Odds, Stats and More
Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Outlook
The Dolphins had hopes of reaching the playoffs, but that goal is in big trouble early. After edging the Patriots in Week 1, they have lost three straight, and only one of those losses was really close. I like QB Jacoboy Brissett, but he is not a star. The problem is neither is Tua Tongavailoa, so whenever he gets healthy he is not going to give them a real bump on the field. As if there weren’t enough issues, receiver Will Fuller is out due to a broken finger suffered last week against the Colts. It was hoped that Fuller would be a big-play target this season, but he has contributed only four catches for 26 yards in limited action.
Last year Miami had some success with a solid and opportunistic defense. They are still creating some turnovers (8th) but they are 25th in yards allowed. They are having trouble getting off the field which only puts more pressure on their offense. Their pass rush is mediocre at best and that is limiting their ability to play aggressively on the backend. This group needs to improve as much as the offense.
Tampa Bay Should Thrive Back at Home
Last week wasn’t their best performance, which might be due to the occasion, but Brady and the Bucs are putting up big numbers through the air again. The running game is sluggish, but I don’t think there is much concern there. Teams do not want to be one dimensional, but it’s a little different when your one dimension is the GOAT and his stable of talented targets. Rob Gronkowski is out, which takes away a key weapon from Brady, but I am not worried about them moving the ball on the Dolphins.
While the Bucs are thriving through the air on offense, their own defense can’t stop the pass. They are dead last in the NFL, allowing as much through the air as Brady and the offense deliver. They are first in the NFL against the run but that is partly situational, as they have been leading in most games this season. All that said, I expect the Bucs to look pretty good against a mediocre offense in this matchup.
NFL Betting Trends to Consider for Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog.
- The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss.
- The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.
- The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
- The Bucs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Best Bet
It would not surprise me to see the Bucs get most of this on their own. Last week’s low-scoring game at New England has created a buying opportunity here. This week the offense should revert back to the form we saw over the first couple weeks of the season. Further, I would be shocked if the Bucs don’t allow the Dolphins to score at least 20 points. We should feel very good about this one by halftime.
Prop Watch: Jacoby Brissett Over 237.5 Passing Yards
Look for the Dolphins to have success throwing the ball. Every team that has faced the Bucs has been able to move the ball through the air, and Miami will also be in catchup mode all game long. I would bet this one all the way up to 240 with confidence. The Bucs are giving up almost 100 yards more than this per game.
Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Score Prediction
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Miami Dolphins 24
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