Keeneland Sunday: Rosario to Ride Favored Lucky Money in Dowager

By | October 22, 2021

The final graded stakes race at Keeneland this weekend is the Dowager on Sunday. Joel Rosario is named on the favorite Lucky Money for Armando Delacour.

Breeder’s Cup Updates

While many have their wagering attention zeroed in on Keeneland, it has been a busy week for updates about November’s Breeder’s cup which will take place at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.

Mishriff

The Saudi Cup winner was declared out of the Breeder’s Cup this week. It was established that the horse needs more rest after his last effort.

Maxfield

It was announced that he would skip the Classic and instead point to the Clark at Churchill Downs. The ownership group pointed toward Churchill success in the horse’s past performance as the primary consideration. However, this is the same stable that owns Essential Quality. It isn’t a massive leap to assume that part of the move had to do with the fact that they weren’t confident this one would beat his stable mate. Maxfield has returned to Keeneland to continue training.

Dr. Post

Todd Pletcher, the “trainer of sires”, has pulled Dr. Post from the Classic. Health is of no issue, but the move seems to be made in effort to point toward an easier grade 1 event. Winning a grade 1 is essential to pulling in top dollar as a stud and Dr. Post has yet to succeed in that regard.

Happy Saver

The other Pletcher trainee pulled from the race was this Runhappy colt who is taking a bit too long to recover from injury. Erring on the side of caution Pletcher wasn’t confident he could get enough works into the horse to have him in top shape for Breeder’s Cup. It is likely Happy Saver could be off until 2022.

Keeneland Sunday Analysis

Keeneland Race 1-Early Pick 5

Post: 1:00 PM ET; Purse: $48,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6

#5 OLD TOWN ROAD is favored for Wesley Ward and has the best speed figures in the race. #3 SUBURBAN COURT could have the early pace to be dangerous here and fits on speed numbers as well. #1 VIDAL is interesting as a long shot. If you prefer distance specialists #2 KING OF TRUTH has hit the board at the highest clip in 6 furlong races.

Selections: 5-3-1-2

Keeneland Race 2

Post: 1:32 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 16

#8 STORMY STELLA has experience and could parlay that into a win today. #10 DEVILLY and #15 GILLIAN ELIZABETH are both interesting at 5-1. #3 AWESOME HOPE is at odds of 10-1 despite having the top speed figures in the group.

Selections: 8-10-15-3

Keeneland Race 3

Post: 2:04 PM ET; Purse: $35,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 15

#14 ILLUSTRIOUS hasn’t done anything wrong to this point and against proven losers that could be a plus. The concern is the post. #2 LIVING WATER is in a similar situation put does draw much better than my top selection. I’m just not sure the post is enough to justify the massive price difference. #1 DEALMEINBUD is bred well for the distance. #5 ENFORCER could be another sitting on a good race today.

Selections: 14-2-1-5

Keeneland Race 4- Pick 6

Post: 2:36 PM ET; Purse: $36,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

#8 ESCAPE FUND has been running against solid horses thus far. I think he found his friends here. #4 WELL SPENT has the top speed figures and should have the conditioning to carry it to the wire. #2 NIC AND ZOE is favored and will be forwardly placed which is always a good place to be in dirt sprints. #5 SAINTSATION is an interesting longshot at 12-1 that would be unlikely in the winner’s circle, but could light up the tote board underneath.

Selections: 8-4-2-5

Keeneland Race 5- Pick 5 and All Turf Pick 3

Post: 3:08 PM ET; Purse: $90,000 Allowance, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 8

Kicking off the Keeneland all turf pick 3 is this allowance sprint. #5 INTO THE SUNRISE looks good on speed figures. #1 COMPETITIVE SAINT is a class play and goes out for successful Keeneland connections. #2 INHALATION has been in good form of late. #3 MARK OF THE Z wouldn’t be a total surprise to factor in the race as well.

Selections: 5-1-2-3

Keeneland Race 6

Post: 3:40 PM ET; Purse: $90,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 7

#6 ITS COLD IN DEHERE gets Florent Geroux in the saddle for Norm Casse. #4 TASTING THE STARS has run well at this distance before. #5 SALLY’S CURLIN tops the field on speed and class. #1 FINAL CUT will look to have the pace edge and carry them around the track.

Selections: 6-4-5-1

Keeneland Race 7

Post: 4:12 PM ET; Purse: $150,000 Rood and Riddle Dowager S., 1 1/2 Miles on Turf; Entries: 10

#5 LUCK MONEY is favored and comes into the race in top form under the piloting of Joel Rosario. #6 MICHELINE is one who may look to sit a trip and get the late run of the race. #3 SUMMER IN SARATOGA and #4 LA LUNE both look to be reasonable contenders as well.

Selections: 5-6-3-4

Keeneland Race 8

Post: 4:44 PM ET; Purse: $90,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 6

#5 HIGHEST HONORS should have no problem with the distance and comes into the race well. #6 WARRIOR’S CHARGE is the class of the field and should appreciate a softer field than what he’s been facing. #1 PIRATE’S PUNCH is a player based on speed figures. #2 THOMAS SHELBY comes into the race off a solid recent race.

Selections: 5-6-1-2

Keeneland Race 9

Post: 5:16 PM ET; Purse: $86,000 Allowance, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 16

#8 POINT WILD is a bomb at 20-1. While these types don’t often win at Keeneland, this one has some sneaky numbers that make her a player. #6 MAGNA MATER another at a price that could show well. #3 TEXAS SHUFFLE is at 5-2 and while she looks like a good runner, its a short price to take on a runner who rates out lower than at least one other horse in every key metric. #14 MIZZEN ASH is almost identical to the #3 but you are compensated with a 5-1 price.

Selections: 8-6-3-14

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