Italy vs. England Betting: Will the spoils be shared in Milan?

By | September 23, 2022

There is some fantastic soccer to look forward to this week as the likes of the English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, and the German Bundesliga make way for the return of the UEFA Nations League. Games are played in midweek and across the weekend, with our focus coming from Italy on Friday when England comes calling.

This group match is a replay of the Euro 2020 final that was played at Wembley Stadium in London last summer. That match went all the way to the end, with penalties needed after the pair couldn’t be separated after 120 minutes of competitive action. Italy won that match and the trophy following a stunning shootout.

Will this be a case of repeat or revenge when these two huge names from European soccer renew their rivalry? Italy knows a home victory would go some way to improving their young, inexperienced but ambitious side, while England knows that a win here wouldn’t undo the hurt of the final, but it would provide a timely boost to team morale.

Italy vs. England Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Italy and England have met 29 times in the past, with the head-to-head stats showing 11 draws, ten wins for the Italians and eight for England.
  • The most recent clash of these sides produced a 0-0 draw in June of this year when the English failed to capitalise on their home advantage.
  • Each of the last four games has ended in a draw, with three of those being 1-1 before the Euro 2020 final was goalless.
  • Venue & Location: San Siro (Milan, Italy)
  • Kick-Off Time: 2:45 p.m. Eastern Time (8:45 p.m. Milan time)

Italy vs. England Betting Odds

Odds are from FanDuel.

Moneyline

  • Italy to win +210
  • Draw +200
  • England +125

Total Goals Over/Under

  • Over 2.5 goals (+124)
  • Under 2.5 goals (-174)

Both teams to score

  • Yes -104
  • No -122

Follow the form

In some fixtures, there isn’t too much to go on, but in certain matches, you will find a strong clue or trend that just can’t be ignored.

This game is one of those occasions with each of the last four meetings of Italy and England producing draws, three of the four giving up a 1-1 final score.

Will we see another level finish in this return? It’s certainly possible, and with Italy notoriously difficult to break down when playing at home, a share of the spoils wouldn’t come as a shock to anyone following this match.

Last five results for Italy

  • Lost 5-2
  • Drew 0-0
  • Won 2-1
  • Drew 1-1
  • Lost 3-0

Poor run of form

As you can see from the list of Italy’s last five results above, they enter this match on an unconvincing run of form that has seen them win only one of their last five outings.

The spare in that sticky spell came in the form of a hard-fought 2-1 over Hungary in the summer but was followed by a 0-0 draw with England and then a 5-2 thrashing by Germany. That last result is one that sticks in the throat of all soccer lovers with a passion for Italy.

It’s true that since beating England to win the Euro 2020 trophy, this squad has undergone widespread changes. Fresh blood has been brought through to gain vital experience with one eye on the future, but the kids haven’t exactly hit the ground running.

There are goals in this Italian side, and they lack nothing in terms of flair and skill, but they continue to make foolish and naive mistakes in defence. That was never more evident than against Germany when the backline was hurt early and caved without putting up much of a fight.

Must-win match for England

If followers of the Italian national team think they have struggled since the Euro 2020 final in London, they have seen nothing compared to the hurt endured by England supporters.

The Three Lions have stumbled from one disappointment to the next and are in real trouble of being eliminated from this group, dropping down to B level.

But there’s still time to turn things around and get confidence back in the team in good time for travelling to Qatar for the World Cup. The players are out to prove themselves to the coaches and fans.

England has been poor of late and now travel to the San Siro in Italy facing a game they must win to stay in the competition and avoid relegation to Group B.

A draw would be a decent result for their opponents but does nothing for England’s cause, with the players inside the away locker room knowing what is expected of them here.

Last five results for England

  • Lost 4-0
  • Drew 0-0
  • Drew 1-1
  • Lost 1-0
  • Won 3-0

Visitors are toiling

When looking through the list of England’s five previous outings, we note they have just one victory to their name, with the spare picked up against the Ivory Coast in a friendly match played in March. Watkins, Sterling and Mings scored the goals; two of the three struck after Ivory Coast had been reduced to 10 men.

England is running out of time to save their position in Group A and also to put together a run of form ahead of the World Cup.

All the pressure is on the away team here, and they know anything less than their total commitment could see them end up on the losing side again.

We plan to stick with the stats and back another draw in a game involving two evenly-matched sides.

Italy vs. England Prediction: Draw

Italy vs. England Betting Tip: Draw @ +210 (Caesars Sportsbook)

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