This week from Shelbyville, Indiana features 2 stakes races. Both will be run as a part of Wednesday’s card on the Indiana Grand dirt course.
Indiana Grand Wednesday Analysis
While Monday and Tuesday look like beautiful days for racing, Wednesday leaves plenty in doubt. Current predictions suggest a 70% chance of thunderstorms in the area on Wednesday with the heaviest rains in the morning.
While racing will continue barring afternoon lightning, there is a good chance the track will be in some form of off going (sloppy, sealed, muddy, etc.). It is also extremely likely that turf races could come off the grass and be moved to the Indiana Grand main track.
The good news is that both stakes races are scheduled for dirt which should limit the number of horses scratching out if the rains do come as predicted.
Post: 2:25 PM ET; Purse: $17,500 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6
#6 STAND AND SERVE is at odds of 3-1 and makes sense here on a number of factors including speed figures, class, and form. If the #6 can’t get the job done perhaps #3 SHIPSHAPE at odds of 5-1 can pull the upset with a solid foundation and the top power rating in the group. #5 SUCCESSFULLY DONE is the favorite here based on connections and hitting the board at the distance, but I am typically weary of horses at this price in maiden claiming events. #2 PRINCE ACT is a major bomb at odds of 20-1 and could just get the best of the race flow at a huge price.
Post: 2:56 PM ET; Purse: $42,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 6
#2 JOVA is at odds of 7-5 and seems to have a strong edge over this group in terms of both speed and class. #1 CLASSY COWBOY is at odds of 5-2 and has done little wrong. The one concern is that the rail has not been ideal of late and I’m not sure if this one will be able to secure a position away from the fence. #6 TOSS OF FATE is at odds of 7-2 and may get the benefit of an outer post. #5 BAYOU CAT is at odds of 9-2 for top connections and is proven at the distance.
Post: 3:27 PM ET; Purse: $36,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 8
#7 STORMY WAGER is odds on. If this one stays on the turf, that seems like bad value, but a reasonable price. #1 PRIZED CUPCAKE at 6-1 and #8 HARLANS PRINCESS at odds of 4-1 ratings are both well bred and could spring the upset here. The added value from such a heavy favorite makes them great plays. #2 AMA LUCY is a longshot worth a look at 12-1.
If the race comes off the Indiana Grand turf and onto the dirt, players should reevaluate the entire race based on dirt form and off-track breeding ratings which can be found in most past performances.
Post: 3:58 PM ET; Purse: $40,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8
#5 AZZARO STEEL is at odds of 5-2 and has a great combination of stamina and class which could pay huge dividends if the track is tiring. #7 THEDEVILSALGORITHM is at odds of 2-1 and could be the most well rounded of the major players. With the #5 and #7 being viable players I will side slightly more with the one that represents better value. #1 RICH KINGDOM is at odds of 3-1 and is in great form. #4 PREPARE FOR GLORY is at odds of 10-1 will look to run them off their feet on the front end. Maybe this one can pop at a price.
Post: 4:29 PM ET; Purse: $34,000 Maiden Special Weight, 7 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 11
#2 MARIAH’S FORTUNE is at odds of 5-2 and has shown well at this distance in the past. #4 INEEDAGIRLLIKEYOU is at odds of 5-1 and has run against quality horses and could use that experience to break the maiden here. As a longshot I like #10 IGGY BIGS is at odds of 12-1 who get the best pace setup in this race. #8 SWIZZLECITY is at odds of 7-2 and certainly has every right to be in the mix. I just typically don’t like to include shorter priced horses deep in my tickets.
Once again be aware of the changes that come with this race potentially coming off of the turf course.
Post: 5:00 PM ET; Purse: $38,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9
#5 KADRI is at odds of 4-1 and has the best speed figures and power ratings of anyone in the group. #4 FLOWERPECKER is at odds of 10-1 and has some of the best connections at Indiana Grand on side. #9 ROB THE RICH is at odds of 8-1 and has been cycling up in form. #3 TALE OF FAME hasn’t done a lot wrong, but is another that is low on my selections and at a short price. This one would not be surprising in the winner’s circle if you have extra equity to use.
Post: 5:31 PM ET; Purse: $34,000 Maiden Special Weight, 7 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 11
#3 ANNAGANGSTA is at odds of 9-2 and has been keeping good company. #7 AUNT RUTH is 6-1 on the morning line and may just get the best of the race flow. #6 HEAVENLY HELLOS will be all over my tickets at 20-1. I love long shots like this that don’t factor positively, but haven’t done anything wrong to this point. #11 BOURBON PRINCESS is at odds of 5-2 and makes sense on speed figures. However this one will have to overcome a very wide post.
This is the final Indiana Grand turf race of the day. Once again, make sure to make any adjustments based on scratches and surface changes.
Post: 6:02 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Empire S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 13
#10 CASH LOGISTICS is 3-1 on the line and my best bet of the day. This one looks good in so many aspects of handicapping that using this one is a must. #6 MAX EXPRESS is at odds of 6-1 and has stamina and class to fit here. #5 REDSKIESATNIGHT is also 6-1 and though he does not rank 1st in any key handicapping, he is near the leader in most categories making him a logical contender. #8 UPHOLD is at odds of 20-1 and worth a use in the bottom slots of vertical wagers.
Selections: 10-6-5-8 (Best Bet #10)
Post: 6:33 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Hoosier Heartland S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 7
#4 APRIL’S NO FOOL is my top longshot of the day combining class and stamina ratings that make the horse very reasonable here at 15-1. #6 FIREBALL BABY is 4-1 and should get a great race flow. #1 PRETTY ASSETS is at odds of 5-1 and is coming into great form. #5 PEARL TIARA is at odds of 2-1 and has to be respected based on the connections.
Post: 7:04 PM ET; Purse: $108,800 Leader of the Class Sale S., 350 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 11
No selections given for quarter horse racing.
Top 4 Morning Line: 6-1-7-4
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