Gulfstream Park Wednesday: January 5th Analysis from Hallendale Beach

By | January 5, 2022

Gulfstream Park will resume racing on Wednesday. The 9 race card will kick off a weekend highlighted by the Grade 3 Tropical Turf on Saturday.

Wednesday Analysis

Wednesday’s card at Gulfstream Park is a perfect opportunity for value hunters. Every single race on the card is either a maiden or has the option of horses being for sale via the claim. This means the probability of chaos could be heightened.

On days like this horseplayers are wise to go in with a few selections in each race. For each selection create a price target of where you think the odds reach equilibrium with the chance to win and let that be your guide for betting rather than just trying to select the most likely winner.

Betting News Win Percentages

Betting News has AI generated win percentages available to help determine what price is fair on a given horse.

Use Betting News win percentages to establish fair value at Gulfstream Park
Win percentage is listed in blue in the furthest righthand column of the race view

Fair Value

The chart below can be a huge quick reference when determining if a horse represents value in the win pool.

This chart shows comparisons between win percentage and fair odds.
Fair odds are listed on the left of each column, while win probability is listed on the right.

If the horse you like proves to be an underlay for the win, creative exacta and double combinations can often allow you to get fair value on your top selection.

Gulfstream Park Race 1

Post: 12:30 PM ET; Purse: $43,000 Maiden Optional Claiming, About 5 Furlongs on All Weather Track; Entries: 10

#7 PHILIPSBURG (6-1) is worth a look here given edges in connections & power rating. According to the Betting News win percentages this one is the likeliest winner at 14%. While 6-1 is fair odds for a horse with that chance, it suggests any of the horses with lower odds are underlays.

#1 STREAMING TAP (4-1) should be competitive today based on the horse’s speed & form. #2 CHIEF ROCKA (5-1) is with a great chance based on the foundation built up in previous starts. #6 ETERNAL FLAME (8-1) wouldn’t be a huge surprise in the winner’s circle.

Selections: 7-1-2-6

Gulfstream Park Race 2

Post: 12:58 PM ET; Purse: $28,000 Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#2 RESERVENOTATTAINED (2-1) is in with a major shot holding advantages in speed & class. #7 FINANCIAL SYSTEM (9-5) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including power rating. However, based on Betting News winning percentages these horses are both underlays.

When looking for value, players would be wise to focus on #3 LUSITANO (7-2) wouldn’t be a huge surprise in the winner’s circle and has a projected win percentage of 21% which lands between 3 and 4 to 1 fair odds. #4 OLD TIME REVIVAL (6-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done. With a Betting News win percentage of 17% this one is an overlay with fair odds of 5-1.

Selections: 2-7-3-4

Gulfstream Park Race 3

Post: 1:26 PM ET; Purse: $32,000 Maiden Claiming, About 5 1/2 Furlongs on All Weather Track; Entries: 7

#6 STORMY STELLA (2-1) has a great shot in the race given the advantages in top connections & class. #1 PRONTA (9-5) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. #2 ONE IDENTITY (5-1) and #4 STAKE N EGGZ (7-2) wouldn’t be a huge surprise in the winner’s circle.

Based on Betting News win percentages all 4 runners are underlays at their morning line price.

Selections: 6-1-2-4

Gulfstream Park Race 4

Post: 2:00 PM ET; Purse: $60,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 6

A word of caution when price hunting in maiden special weight. These are often the future stakes horses. Value plays a smaller role in these races than in the claiming counterparts in the same way that stakes are more predictable than claiming races.

#1 SCALDING (6-5) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. #4 TONAL IMPACT (8-5) is worth a look here given the connections & pace numbers. #2 CHROME REPUBLIC (6-1) wins this race 20% of the time according to the Betting News win percentage which would equate to fair odds of 4-1. This one might offer good value. #5 UNEXPECTED (10-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today and should be 5-1 based on win percentages. This one is a huge overlay based on the morning line.

Selections: 1-4-2-5

Gulfstream Park Race 5

Post: 2:30 PM ET; Purse: $61,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 16

With so few turf races carded, the fields are oversubscribed. This means that at least 4 horses will have to be scratched. In these types of races it is near impossible to make a fair odds line until scratches come out.

#2 REGAL SPEAKER (5-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & record at the distance. #6 LONESOME FUGITIVE (3-1) is a major player in today’s race based on several key handicapping factors including stamina & power rating. #13 KLICKITAT (6-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts but the outside post is concerning. #9 SIGRUN FAST BOY (9-2) wouldn’t be a huge surprise in the winner’s circle either.

Selections: 2-6-13-9

Gulfstream Park Race 6

Post: 3:00 PM ET; Purse: $28,000 Claiming, About 1 Mile 70 Yards on All Weather Track; Entries: 7

#3 ROSA STAR (9-2) should be competitive today based on the horse’s speed & form. #7 EMIRATES AFFAIR (6-5) is with a great chance based on the horse’s connections & power rating. #6 MISS MAMBA (7-2) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today’s distance and surface conditions. #5 PANOTTI (10-1) is a longshot worth a look. Though the other 3 may be more likely winners, this one projects great value currently sitting 4 pts above fair odds.

Selections: 3-7-6-5

Gulfstream Park Race 7

Post: 3:32 PM ET; Purse: $24,000 Claiming, About 5 1/2 Furlongs on All Weather Track; Entries: 8

#7 ZAMFIR (3-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & power rating. #5 OFFICER COUNTRY (5-2) merits consideration in this spot given edges in stamina & pace numbers. #1 PERSONAL MEADOW (8-1) is worth a look here given edges in connections & record at the distance. #6 BIG CITY RED (10-1) is the best overlay in the field with fair odds of 9-1. The previous three all currently are underlaid from their Betting News win percentages.

Selections: 7-5-1-6

Gulfstream Park Race 8

Post: 4:04 PM ET; Purse: $42,000 Starter Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#7 AMAZING TRIP (3-1) has to be respected today edging the field in several key handicapping factors including class & power rating. This one is just slightly underlaid and would get my money anywhere near 3-1.

#4 SEA ART (7-2) should be competitive today based on the horse’s speed & pace numbers. #5 SHE’S SO BEAUTIFUL (5-2) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. #6 RAPTUROUS (9-2) is worth a look here given the projected race setup.

Selections: 7-4-5-6 (Best Bet: #7 AMAZING TRIP)

Gulfstream Park Race 9

Post: 4:36 PM ET; Purse: $62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 5 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 9

#9 ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in form & power rating. #4 MYSTERY MESSENGER (6-1) is a major player based on speed figures. #2 GHOUL (10-1) has also run solid speed figures but this might be too big an ask. #6 LIKE WHAT I SEE (10-1) has to be respected based on the connections and is projected at fair odds of 7-1. There appears to be value on this runner.

Selections: 9-4-2-6

Betting News has win percentages for many tracks around the country today including Delta Downs, Parx, Penn National, Tampa Bay Downs, and Turf Paradise.

The post Gulfstream Park Wednesday: January 5th Analysis from Hallendale Beach first appeared on Betting News.

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