Green Bay has won four games in a row since losing their season opener and are back in business as one of the top NFL betting odds favorites for the NFC title and Super Bowl.
Somehow the Bears are only one game back of them in the NFC North standings despite trying to break in a rookie quarterback, so this is a critical game. Can Justin Fields lead the Bears to a win in his first taste of one of the NFL’s biggest rivalries?
The Bears are anything but a predictable team, and they can make things interesting playing at home in some ugly weather. It might be too much to ask of a rookie though.
Green Bay Packers (4-1) vs Chicago Bears (3-2), FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears NFL Betting Odds
- Green Bay Packers -250
- Chicago Bears +205
- OVER 44 (-110)
- UNDER 44 (-110)
- Green Bay Packers -6 (-110)
- Chicago Bears +6 (-110)
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Sunday, October 17, 2021 at 5:50 a.m. ET. Want to see NFL betting odds from several top online sportsbooks for every NFL matchup each week? Check out our NFL odds.
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears NFL Betting Consensus
- 100% Green Bay Packers
- 0% Chicago Bears
Total (at O/U 44)
- 33% OVER 44
- 67% UNDER 44
Spread (at -/+6)
- 33% Green Bay Packers -6
- 67% Chicago Bears +6
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Matchup: NFL Betting Picks, Odds, Stats and More
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Betting Outlook
Green Bay is the top dog in the division and this is a chance to prove it on Sunday. The line says it should be no problem. Since the opening week loss to New Orleans, the Packers are 4-0 SU & ATS.
Over that stretch, Green Bay has not scored less than 25 points as Aaron Rodgers has looked as good as ever posting a 10-1 touchdown to interception ratio. The Packers have been able to run the ball enough and the Rodgers to WR Davante Adams connection has been pretty unstoppable. Last week, the duo connected for over 200 yards.
Green Bay’s defense is 20th in points allowed, but they rank sixth in yards allowed. The Week 1 loss to the Saints, in which they gave up 38 points, has an impact there. It takes to their numbers from 21 points allowed per game in the other four games to 24.4 points allowed per game overall.
This is not an elite defense, but they are missing one of their best players with star pass rusher Za’Darius Smith potentially out for the season. With a disruptive force out, it is encouraging for Green Bay’s prospects that they have eight takeaways already. It will be interesting to see whether they bring the heat on Fields to try to force him into some mistakes.
Are the Bears Ahead of Schedule?
Since getting beaten badly in their opener against the Rams, the Bears have won three of four games.
Rookie QB Justin Fields is certainly not playing great, but coach Matt Nagy shouldn’t give the ball back to Andy Dalton at this point. They have to know that these reps are valuable to his development even though the offense has been pretty pathetic. In three starts Fields has only exceeded 115 yards only once. That might work if they had an elite ground game and defense, but they are just ninth in rushing offense and eighth in points allowed. They play hard though.
The defense is also 8th in yards allowed and can keep them in some games. They have not been able to limit a good offense though, with the Rams scoring 34 points and the Browns 26 in their two losses. The Bears’ own offensive ineptitude puts a lot of pressure on the defense, and I worry that they might crack against Rodgers and the Packers.
It is important for the Bears get pressure on Rodgers to have a chance in this matchup. Khalil Mack has five sacks already after not reaching double digits in either of the previous two seasons. So they just might be able to. But will it be enough?
NFL Betting Trends to Consider for Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
- Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win.
- Chicago is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on grass.
- The Bears are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog.
- The Bears are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Best Bet
Green Bay Packers -6
Both of these teams have covered in their wins and failed to do so in their losses. Look for that trend to continue in this one. Chicago is just not going to be able to generate enough offense to hang with Green Bay. They are familiar with how the Packers attack, but that is not going to be enough to keep them in the game.
Prop Watch: Justin Fields Over 199.5 Yards
Low totals on Fields’ passing output are totally justified. But I do feel that with each game he is getting more comfortable out there, and I like the situation here. The Bears are likely to be losing most of the game, and they are playing at home. That combination should force some extra attempts that may not impact the outcome but will get this prop over the line.
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Score Prediction
Green Bay Packers 27, Chicago Bears 17
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