Del Mar Thoroughbred Club: Native Dancer Stakes Analysis

By | November 19, 2021

Saturday’s card from Del Mar will feature the Native Dancer Stakes as race 8. The rest of the card will be littered with challenging maiden races.

Peter Miller Hiatus

The big news out of California this week was that Breeders’ Cup winning trainer Peter Miller announced taking a leave of absence from horse racing. Miller, who primarily trains at Del Mar claims the hiatus is temporary and comes from his desire to spend more time with his family. Skeptics don’t buy it.

Miller has a checkered pass including several medication violations and a personal conduct suspension looming. He is also currently under scrutiny for a string of horse deaths under his care that his him an outlier among trainers in southern California.

Saturday Race Card Analysis

With over half of the races on the card being run for maidens, players will want to pay close attention to the board prior to each race. Horses taking a lot of money could signal that they are training up a storm. Horses drifting up in price from the morning line could suggest just the opposite.

Del Mar Race 1

Post: 12:30 PM PT; Purse: $70,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 9

#1 CALI BAY (5-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s advantages in class & race flow. #2 SQUARE CAT (6-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & pace numbers. #9 DANCE COMPANY (4-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race. #4 ENCROACHMENT (4-1) comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future.

Selections: 1-2-9-4

Del Mar Race 2

Post: 1:00 PM PT; Purse: $30,000 Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 8

#7 FAMILY BIZ (3-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. #2 SECRET TOUCH (4-1) has a great shot in the race given the advantage in speed & competitive class figures. #6 T BONES TRICK (3.5-1) has to be respected based on the connections. #5 BUILDER (6-1) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group. These power ratings play a bigger factor on the dirt than they do on turf.

Selections: 7-2-6-5

Del Mar Race 3

Post: 1:32 PM PT; Purse: $74,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 5 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 6

#2 STORMING LADY (5-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. #4 TRICKLE IN (5-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s advantages in class & race flow. #1 NIGHTLIFE (7-2) is interesting if the price is right, but at 7-2 doesn’t offer much value. #3 SOUTHERN MAMA (6-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today.

Selections: 2-4-1-3 (Best Bet: #2)

Del Mar Race 4

Post: 2:02 PM PT; Purse: $36,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#2 HEAD FOR BUSINESS (8-5) has a great shot in the race given the advantages in speed & power rating. #4 WEARENOTBADPEOPLE (5-2) is worth a look here with an edge in class & race flow. #5 JUNGLE ROAR (6-1) is interesting if he stays around the morning line. #6 SOTTOCAPO (3-1) is in with a shot, but looks to be too short a price to play too heavily.

Selections: 2-4-5-6

Del Mar Race 5

Post: 2:32 PM PT; Purse: $70,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 8

#6 HOLLYWOODHELLRAISR (6-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including stamina. The breeding of this one is also a promising signal at a price. #3 PRINCE ABAMA (5-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s advantages in class & form. #2 HAIL FREEDOM (3-1) should be competitive today based on the horse’s advantages in speed & pace numbers. #5 KAZUHIKO (3-1) is one that could get the job done, but at the price it will go off at it may not be worth the risk.

Selections: 6-3-2-5

Del Mar Race 6

Post: 3:02 PM PT; Purse: $70,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

#3 ADARE MANOR (9-5) has a great shot in the race given the advantages in speed & class. #5 I GOT A GAL (5-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including stamina & race flow. #4 MICRO SHARE (5-1) is worth a look if he stays around the 5-1 price. Too much shorter and I’ll have to pass. #9 EMPIRE GAL (12-1) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.

Selections: 3-5-4-9

Del Mar Race 7

Post: 3:31 PM PT; Purse: $40,000 Starter Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 11

#4 SECRET CLUB (4-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. #11 MIDNIGHT JOSTAR (6-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race. #5 RONAMO (8-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & connections. If the price holds this one is super interesting. #9 BEST CHANCE (6-1) is a solid play at the price.

Selections: 4-11-5-9

Del Mar Race 8

Post: 4:00 PM PT; Purse: $100,000 Native Diver S., 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

#6 EIGHT RINGS (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in class & power rating. This one was once thought of as a major player in the division and may have found the right level of stakes runners in this spot. #2 MIDCOURT (4-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & form. This one cannot be left off of tickets. #5 AZUL COAST (4-1) is worth a look here given the connections & record at the distance. #1 ESTABLISHED (6-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.

Selections: 6-2-5-1

Del Mar Race 9

Post: 4:29 PM PT; Purse: $25,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

#2 DIXIE’S TWO STENTS (9-5) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & class. #6 FENESTRA (5-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s advantages in race flow & power rating. #8 MAD CATTER (4-1)is in with a shot, but 4-1 is about as short as I want this one. #5 WARFRONT FIGHTER (4-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & form.

Selections: 2-6-8-5

Betting News Handicapping Tools

As you continue to handicap all of this weekend’s race cards, don’t forget to checkout our free handicapping tools and selections from several tracks around the country including Del Mar.

The post Del Mar Thoroughbred Club: Native Dancer Stakes Analysis first appeared on Betting News.

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