Churchill Downs (7/4): July 4th Card Analysis, Selections

By | July 3, 2022

Churchill Downs does not typically run on Monday’s. Thanks to the holiday weekend there will be plenty of fireworks in Kentucky this Monday.

Stephen Foster Recap

Olympiad wins the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs
Olympiad | Photo Credit Blood Horse

The Stephen Foster saw the emergence of a leader in the clubhouse in the older horse division of racing. With his 5th victory in 5 tries Olympiad established himself as the top in a group that has been lacking superstars.

Olympiad defeated other prominent rivals including Americanrevolution and 2021 Kentucky Derby winner, Mandaloun. The winner is most likely pointed toward the Whitney at Saratoga later this summer.

Full Card Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post: 12:45 PM ET; Purse: $141,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 6

  • #4 CANDY TYCOON (5-2) has a great shot in the race given the speed & power rating.
  • #5 INJUNCTION (2-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s class & form.
  • #6 KEYSTONE FIELD (7-2) should be competitive in this group given the speed figures this one has run.
  • #3 SANTOS DUMONT (3-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today’s distance and surface conditions.

Selections: 4-5-6-3

Churchill Downs Race 2

Post: 1:14 PM ET; Purse: $120,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 13

  • #2 JUST LIKE MAGIC (5-1) should be competitive today based on the horse’s speed & race flow.
  • #5 MOON MAGIC CHRISSY (8-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & record at the distance.
  • #10 SHEZA SHINING STAR (6-1) comes into the race in good form. This one has the experience edge on the group.
  • #6 FRIENDLYPERSUASION (10-1) has to be respected based on the connections.

Selections: 2-5-10-6

Churchill Downs Race 3

Post: 1:43 PM ET; Purse: $72,000 Starter Allowance, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

  • #5 NEPOTISM (3-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s stamina & form.
  • #7 MR SIPPI (7-2) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating.
  • #8 MOUNT ATHOS (4-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & record at the distance.
  • #1 PERFECT CUT (12-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.

Selections: 5-7-8-1

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post: 2:13 PM ET; Purse: $120,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 13

  • #9 AUNT MISCHIEF (12-1) looks good on breeding to pull the upset here.
  • #8 NAUGHTY GAL (8-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s stamina & record at the distance.
  • #13 CHIQUITA MOSCA (8-1) is in with a major shot holding speed & class advantages on the group.
  • #10 RUN AND GUN (12-1) is another pedigree type play. This one will be making the debut in this spot.

Selections: 9-8-13-10

Churchill Downs Race 5

Post: 2:45 PM ET; Purse: $134,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 10

  • #5 DOUBLY BLESSED (3-1) has a great shot in the race given the speed & class.
  • #7 RODERICK (7-2) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.
  • #3 GAGETOWN (10-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & form.
  • #6 SHORTLIST (15-1) has to be respected based on the connections.

Selections: 5-7-3-6

Churchill Downs Race 6

Post: 3:18 PM ET; Purse: $175,000 Bashford Manor S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6

  • #1 GULFPORT (4-5) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & form.
  • #6 SIMPLY SUPER (7-2) has to be respected based on the connections.
  • #2 OWEN’S LEAP (8-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & power rating.
  • #3 ANDTHEWINNERIS (5-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in stamina & record at the distance.

Selections: 1-6-2-3

Churchill Downs Race 7

Post: 3:50 PM ET; Purse: $175,000 Debutante S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

  • #7 EMPIRE OF MY OWN (9-5) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & pace.
  • #3 WONDER WHEEL (7-2) makes a lot of sense in this spot based on the stamina & power rating.
  • #5 LES BON TEMPS (5-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s class & record at the distance.
  • #1 CRACKALACKING (7-2) should be a player based on the horse’s class & race flow.

Selections: 7-3-5-1

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post: 4:22 PM ET; Purse: $175,000 Hanshin S. Presented by JRA, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 7

  • #6 PLAINSMAN (5-2) has a great shot in the race given the top connections & class.
  • #7 CODY’S WISH (8-5) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & power rating. I do question how good this one actually is and he might be a bit vulnerable here.
  • #2 RUNNIN’ RAY (15-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in stamina & record at the distance.
  • #1 MISH (9-2) has speed figures that make this one possible in this spot.

Selections: 6-7-2-1

Churchill Downs Race 9

Post: 4:55 PM ET; Purse: $127,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 12

  • #9 WARRIOR JOHNY (4-1) is a speed figure play in this spot, but looks good in a number of handicapping factors.
  • #4 WE ALL SEE IT (12-1) has the class to be dangerous in this spot. The price makes this one tough not to like.
  • #3 BRIGADIER GENERAL (9-2) has been in solid form of late and could be ready to pop at moderate price.
  • #5 GILDED AGE (5-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & power rating.

Selections: 9-4-3-5

Betting News Free Handicapping Tools

For more information on racing from Churchill Downs and all of this week’s racing action, check out our free handicapping tools.

For analysis and selections of the 4th of July card at Canterbury Park, check out Canterbury Park Monday: July 4th Analysis, Selections.

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