After looking like the team to beat in the first eight weeks of the NFL season, the Buffalo Bills enter their Week 11 matchup with the Cleveland Browns after hitting a little speed bump with back-to-back games to the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings.
A similar thing happened last season, when the Bills started 5-2 but lost four of their next six games to put their AFC East title and NFL playoff hopes in jeopardy.
They recovered to beat out the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins for the division title, thanks to winning their final four games. But nipping this season’s blip in the bud is imperative with the Dolphins rolling with Tua Tagovailoa and the Jets (6-3) and Pats (5-4) both over .500.
They have an excellent chance to do that, as Sunday’s game against 3-6 Cleveland will be followed by a Thanksgiving Day matchup with the Detroit Lions, who are also 3-6.
Does my Browns vs Bills prediction forecast a convincing win for Buffalo? Read on to find out.
Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Information and Betting Odds
- Matchup: Cleveland Browns (3-6, 1-3 away, 3rd in the AFC North) vs Buffalo Bills (6-3, 3-1 home, 3rd in the AFC East)
- Venue & Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
- Date: Sunday, November 20, 2022
- Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
- How to Watch Browns vs Bills: CBS
Browns vs Bills Odds
Game odds are via FanDuel as of Wednesday, November 16, 2022, at 11:20 p.m. ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended online sportsbooks.
- Cleveland Browns +7.5 (-106)
- Buffalo Bills -7.5 (-114)
- Over 41.5 (-115)
- Under 41.5 (-105)
- Cleveland Browns +290
- Buffalo Bills -360
Is Misfiring Allen Facing a Mid-Season Crisis?
Forgive the dramatic headline there, but there is legitimacy to that query.
After leading Buffalo to a win at Kansas City in Week 6, Allen looked like the man to beat for NFL MVP honors.
But he has been picked off twice in each of his last three games, and while his picks didn’t cost the Bills against the Packers in Week 8, they were costly in their three-point losses to the Jets and Vikings.
This is the first time in Allen’s NFL career that he has had three straight multi-interception games, and he has already matched the amount of multi-interception games he had all of last season, when he threw a career-worst 15 picks.
Will he get back on track against Cleveland? The Browns are 26th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.6) and are tied for the third-fewest interceptions (three).
While Allen hasn’t been at his best as a passer recently, his running ability certainly isn’t broken. And against a team ranked 27th in yards allowed per carry, he should have plenty of success with his legs on Sunday.
Props aren’t out at the time of writing, but when he has 170 yards rushing in his last two games (86 against the Jets and 84 against the Vikings), it would be wise to include the over on Allen’s rushing total in your Browns vs Bills picks.
Can Chubb Cash in Against a Vulnerable Defense?
If the Browns are to have a chance against the Bills, Jacoby Brissett will likely need to have a clean game. He may not be putting up big numbers, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in his last three games.
Beyond that, it’s hard to see a path towards a possible upset that doesn’t involve a lot of touches and a big game for Nick Chubb. Chubb is third in the NFL in rushing yards (904) and first in rushing touchdowns (11) and 20+ yard runs (10).
There is a common thread in each of the Browns’ three wins this season: 20+ carries and 100+ rushing yards for Chubb.
In his NFL career, Chubb has had 20+ carries and 100+ yards 15 times, and the Browns are 12-3 in those 15 games.
Buffalo’s run defense has shown some vulnerability recently, so the key for Cleveland will be to stay competitive so Chubb can have enough meaningful touches.
Last Three Games for Buffalo’s Run Defense
- Packers (home): 31 carries, 208 yards (6.7 yards per carry)
- Jets (away): 34 carries, 174 yards (5.1 yards per carry)
- Vikings (home): 25 carries, 147 yards (5.9 yards per carry)
If nothing else, if the Browns get into the end zone at some point, Chubb is certainly your best bet to be the scorer. Thanks to scoring in seven of nine games thus far, Chubb is one touchdown away from tying his high for rushing touchdowns in a season (12, which he had in 12 games in 2020).
Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills Prediction and Picks
Browns vs Bills Prediction: Bills to win
Browns vs Bills Picks: Bills to cover (Best Value: -7.5 @ -114 at FanDuel), Bills team total over (Best Value: over 24.5 @ -112 at BetRivers), Bills first half team total over (Best Value: over 12.5 @ -128 at FanDuel)
Yes, Allen is going into this game with some questions to answer after throwing six interceptions in three games. And yes, Buffalo’s run defense has allowed some yards over that same stretch.
But there is only one direction I could possibly go with my Browns vs Bills prediction.
I hesitate to call a line a gift, but this spread is smaller than it would be had the Bills not lost their last two games.
The Browns have played five games decided by three or fewer points–winning one and losing four–but they were not competitive after the first quarter against the Dolphins and are going up against a team that will not be in a mood to go easy on Cleveland after blowing a 17-point lead against Minnesota.
I expect Buffalo’s offense to come out clicking in the first half and not let up on the way to a big win, and my Browns vs Bills picks fall in line with my confidence in that outcome.
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