Brewers vs. Reds (September 24): Burnes bids to keep Brew Crew hot on heels of Padres, Phillies

By | September 24, 2022

The Milwaukee Brewers haven’t taken advantage of every opportunity that they have had to close ground in the race for an NL wild-card spot, but they have done their part in the last few days to stay within reach of both the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres.

This evening, they will take aim at a third straight win over the Cincinnati Reds and a fourth straight overall, with the hope that they will get a better version of Corbin Burnes than they have recently.

The Phillies, who occupy the second NL wild-card spot, have matched the Brewers with three straight wins and remain 2.5 games ahead of Milwaukee.

But after falling to the Cardinals on Thursday and to the Rockies last night, the Padres are only two games ahead of the Brewers for the final NL wild-card spot.

Today could be a pretty pivotal day for Milwaukee, and they must take advantage of any potential chances to gain ground that come with their ace on the mound.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers (81-70, 39-40 away, 2nd in the NL Central) vs. Cincinnati Reds (59-92, 30-46 home, 4th in the NL Central)
  • Venue & Location: Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)
  • Date: Saturday, September 24, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 p.m. Eastern Time

Brewers vs. Reds Pitching Matchup

  • Milwaukee: RHP Corbin Burnes (2022: 30 starts, 10-8, 3.12 ERA)
  • Cincinnati: RHP Graham Ashcraft (2022: 16 starts, 5-3, 3.97 ERA)

Brewers vs. Reds Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Moneyline

  • Milwaukee Brewers -225
  • Cincinnati Reds +188

Over/Under

  • Over 7.5 (-115)
  • Under 7.5 (-105)

Run Line

  • Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-128)
  • Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (+106)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Best Bets

Brewers vs. Reds Prediction: Milwaukee to win

Brewers vs. Reds Best Bets: Milwaukee -1.5 (Best Value: -125 at Caesars Sportsbook) & Milwaukee team total over 4.5 runs (Best Value: -114 at FanDuel)

Plenty of MLB pitchers would love to be 10-8 with a 3.12 ERA and 223 strikeouts in 30 starts. But that is a major disappointment for Burnes given where his numbers were and were expected to be.

Replicating the kind of season that he had in 2021 was not going to be an easy task for Burnes, so some drop-off is no surprise.

But after being in the thick of the NL Cy Young Award hunt for most of the season, Burnes enters his final few regular season starts well out of the running.

Why?

Over his last seven starts, Burnes is 1-3 with a 5.62 ERA. In 41.2 innings, he has allowed 29 runs (26 earned) and 43 hits and struck out 42. One-third of those strikeouts came in a win over San Francisco on September 8, which is the only time in this seven-start stretch that he has recorded more than six strikeouts.

Month-by-Month Splits for Corbin Burnes

  • April (four starts): 1-0, 1.75 ERA)
  • May (six starts): 2-2, 2.08 ERA
  • June (five starts): 3-2, 3.45 ERA
  • July (five starts): 2-0, 2.01 ERA
  • August (six starts): 1-2, 4.81 ERA
  • September (four starts): 1-2, 4.78 ERA

Will today be better? Burnes has not faced Cincinnati regularly, despite them being a division opponent. But when he has over the last three seasons, he is 1-0 with a 2.10 ERA in four starts. In 25.2 innings, he has allowed six runs (all earned), 15 hits, and nine walks and struck out 34.

Notable Brewers vs. Reds Betting Trends

  • Milwaukee is 18-12 this season in games started by Corbin Burnes.
  • Of those 18 wins, 11 have come by 2+ runs.
  • Milwaukee is 12-5 against Cincinnati this season, including 6-2 at Great American Ball Park.
  • Of those 12 wins, nine have come by 2+ runs, including four of the six road wins.

In Ashcraft’s lone home start against the Brew Crew, he allowed six runs, eight hits, and two walks in five innings in a 7-3 loss on June 18.

The rookie, who hasn’t made a start since August 17 due to biceps soreness, had pitched until hitting the IL, coming up a third of an inning short–against the Brewers–of having five consecutive quality starts.

But the Brewers appear to be building some confidence at the plate and overall, as they have outscored the Mets and Reds 16-4 in their three-game win streak. I feel that confidence will continue at the plate and rub off on Burnes, and I expect the Brewers to pick up another vital win.

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