Blue Jays vs. Brewers (June 25): Will the Brew Crew’s bats add to Kikuchi’s June misery?

By | June 25, 2022

Last night, the Toronto Blue Jays jumped on the Milwaukee Brewers early and then rode their lead and another strong performance from AL Cy Young Award contender Alek Manoah to a series-opening win in Milwaukee.

This afternoon, the Brewers will look to flip the script with reigning NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes back on the mound after one of his best starts of the season.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays (40-30, 19-16 away, 2nd in the AL East) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (40-33, 17-15 home, tied for 1st in the NL Central)
  • Venue & Location: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)
  • Date: Saturday, June 25, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:10 p.m. Eastern Time (3:10 p.m. local time)
  • TV Broadcast/Streaming Info: Bally Sports Wisconsin (Brewers), MLB Extra Innings/MLB.TV (subscription packages)

Blue Jays vs. Brewers Pitching Matchup

  • Toronto Blue Jays: Yusei Kikuchi (2022: 13 starts, 2-3, 4.94 ERA, 54.2 IP, 61 K/34 BB)
  • Milwaukee Brewers: Corbin Burnes (2022: 14 starts, 5-4, 2.31 ERA, 85.2 IP, 110 K/19 BB)

Blue Jays vs. Brewers Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. Odds from our other top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks may also be featured in this article.

Moneyline

  • Toronto Blue Jays +140
  • Milwaukee Brewers -166

Over/Under

  • OVER 8 (-118)
  • UNDER 8 (-104)

Run Line

  • Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-150)
  • Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+125)

Is the Over Likely in Milwaukee?

Poor run support and his own occasional struggles have contributed to a lack of wins for Burnes to this point, but he enters today’s matchup with wins and solid performances in his last two starts.

That said, his home and daytime splits don’t look great compared to his away and night splits

2022 Season Splits for Corbin Burnes

  • Home (seven starts): 2-3, 3.02 ERA, 41.2 IP, 16 R (14 ER)
  • Away (seven starts): 3-1, 1.64 ERA, 44 IP, 9 R (8 ER)
  • Day (five starts): 1-2, 3.07 ERA, 29.1 IP, 12 R (10 ER)
  • Night (nine starts): 4-2, 1.92 ERA, 56.1 IP, 13 R (12 ER)

The biggest reason for his current home record is a lack of run support, however. In five of his seven home starts, the Brewers have scored three or fewer runs, and their best output in one of his home starts thus far is seven runs in a 7-6, 11-inning win over the Atlanta Braves on May 18. In the other six starts, they have managed all of 12 runs and have been shut out twice.

But the offensive outlook is favorable for today’s game with Yusei Kikuchi on the hill for Toronto.

Kikuchi’s first season with the Blue Jays is not going well, as he has made it through five or more full innings only five times in 13 starts. After some struggles in April, he appeared to be turning a corner, as he posted a 2.36 ERA last month and went five or more innings in four of five May starts.

But June has seen him take a big step back, as he has pitched no more than 4.2 innings in any of his four starts and has a 9.45 ERA this month.

June Game Log for Yusei Kikuchi

  • vs. Minnesota (9-3 loss on 6/3): L, 4.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R (4 ER), 3 HR
  • at Kansas City (8-4 loss on 6/8): no-decision, 0.2 IP, 2 H, 3 R (3 ER), 4 BB
  • vs. Baltimore (6-5 loss on 6/14): L, 4 IP, 5 H, 4 R (4 ER), 2 HR, 4 BB
  • vs. New York Yankees (10-9 win on 6/19): no-decision, 4 IP, 3 H, 3 R (3 ER), 2 HR, 2 BB

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Best Bets

Blue Jays vs. Brewers Prediction: Brewers to win

Blue Jays vs. Brewers Best Bets: Brewers ML (-159 at BetRivers), Blue Jays/Brewers OVER 8 (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook) & Brewers team total over 4.5 runs (+106 at BetRivers)

Kikuchi’s start coincides with a scenario that has produced runs on a frequent basis this season. When the Brewers have lost, the total has gone over (20 times) or pushed (three times) in the following game 23 times (in 32 games).

Also, there have been at least nine combined runs in Kikuchi’s last five starts, in eight of his starts this season, and in his last four road starts.

The Brewers are most certainly the pick here when it comes to backing a side, but the moneyline is teetering on that edge of where you would be better off trying to find value in other bets on the Brewers. That said, if you can find it around -160, it’s still worth it.

As for the better bets, with Kikuchi’s struggles in mind and the fact that the opposition has tallied at least five runs in all of the aforementioned instances in which the combined number of runs has been nine or more.

Also, today could be a great day for Andrew McCutchen to up his strange season numbers against southpaws. For his career, McCutchen is a .303 hitter against lefties. But this season, he is hitting just .210 against lefties.

Righties (.256) are batting 78 points higher against Kikuchi than lefties (.178), and his OBA is 40 points higher on the road (.261) than at home (.221). At FanDuel, McCutchen is +320 to have 2+ hits.

Other MLB Content Today on Betting News (Saturday, June 25)

  • Astros vs. Yankees Prediction & Best Bets (6/25)
  • Cubs vs. Cardinals Prediction & Best Bets (6/25)

The post Blue Jays vs. Brewers (June 25): Will the Brew Crew’s bats add to Kikuchi’s June misery? appeared first on Betting News.

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